empty
14.03.2025 03:39 AM
GBP/USD Pair Overview – March 14: The Last Day of the Week as a Mere Formality

This image is no longer relevant

On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair also began a slight downward correction. While the pound did not depreciate significantly, explaining why it rose for two weeks is difficult. Of course, Donald Trump's tariffs, which could trigger a recession in the U.S. economy and globally, are a strong reason to sell the dollar. However, is the market getting ahead of itself? As mentioned, nothing catastrophic has happened to the U.S. economy yet. Moreover, the Federal Reserve still does not intend to cut interest rates more than twice in 2025, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England remain much more dovish. If we disregard the news about Trump's tariffs, what other reasons exist for the euro and the pound to rise against the U.S. dollar? The British economy remains weak and stagnant. The BoE is forced to cut rates even if it does not want to—economic stimulus is necessary. Trade negotiations between London and Washington, aimed at avoiding tariffs, have yielded no concrete results. Dealing with Donald Trump is always tricky; one can only accept his terms.

Thus, we will not be surprised if the British pound starts moving toward its yearly lows. The currency has again risen where there was no fundamental reason for growth. The pound has climbed due to a single factor, while the market has ignored everything else. In the daily time frame, it is evident that despite the strong rise in recent weeks and even months, the downtrend remains intact—even the medium-term one that began in September last year, not to mention the 16-year downtrend that started in 2008. To be honest, the recent growth of the pound appears to mark the start of a new trend. However, it is still too early to say whether this is a trend or a substantial correction.

We still see no solid reasons for the pound to continue rising. Of course, there is the Trump factor, and the market has already demonstrated its reaction to his decisions. Thus, if the U.S. president continues making controversial decisions to fulfill his imperial ambitions, the dollar could resume its decline. It's important to emphasize that significant changes in the economy and monetary policy are genuine issues, not just worries about potential problems. For instance, last year, markets anticipated 6 to 7 cuts in the Fed's interest rates, but only three cuts actually occurred. Nevertheless, the market had already priced in all seven anticipated cuts.

If a decline begins now, we will fully support it and consider it justified. However, for this to happen, the price must first consolidate below the moving average—not just for a couple of hours, but confidently.

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 71 pips, which is classified as "moderate" for this pair. On Friday, March 14, we expect the pair to move between 1.2873 and 1.3015. The long-term regression channel has turned upward, but the downtrend remains visible on the daily time frame. The CCI indicator has recently avoided both overbought and oversold zones.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.2939

S2 – 1.2817

S3 – 1.2695

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3062

R2 – 1.3184

R3 – 1.3306

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair maintains a medium-term downtrend. We still do not consider long positions, as we believe the current upward movement is merely a correction that has turned into an illogical, panic-driven rally. If you trade purely based on technical analysis, long positions are possible with targets at 1.3015 and 1.3062, provided the price remains above the moving average. However, sell orders remain far more relevant, with targets at 1.2207 and 1.2146, as the upward correction on the daily time frame will inevitably end sooner or later. The pound appears extremely overbought and unjustifiably expensive, but Donald Trump continues to push the dollar downward. How much longer this dollar collapse will last remains highly uncertain.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

Paolo Greco,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Os mercados estão presos em um ciclo vicioso sem saída à vista (potencial queda do Bitcoin e do ouro)

Atualmente, os mercados enfrentam um choque significativo, impulsionado por um sentimento negativo persistente que pesa sobre eles como um fardo, sem uma solução clara à vista. Diante desse cenário

Pati Gani 17:36 2025-03-20 UTC+2

Mensagem do Fed é música para os ouvidos dos touros

O Fed não está oferecendo uma tábua de salvação para o S&P 500, mas será que o índice realmente precisa de uma? Salva-vidas são para quem está se afogando, enquanto

Marek Petkovich 17:36 2025-03-20 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Análise e previsão

O ouro registra uma leve queda após atingir um novo recorde histórico, mantendo uma postura defensiva. Os traders otimistas estão mais cautelosos, refletindo as condições de sobrecompra no gráfico diário

Irina Yanina 14:09 2025-03-20 UTC+2

Como os mercados podem reagir após a reunião do Fed? (Esperando uma queda acentuada no GBP/USD e uma queda no #SPX)

Hoje, o mercado estará focado na decisão final da Reserva Federal sobre a política monetária. Não se espera que traga novidades, portanto, o tema principal deverá continuar o mesmo

Pati Gani 17:08 2025-03-19 UTC+2

Em que prestar atenção em 19 de março? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Há poucos eventos macroeconômicos programados para esta quarta-feira, o que sugere que a volatilidade de ambos os pares de moedas pode permanecer baixa até a noite. O dólar continua

Paolo Greco 17:01 2025-03-19 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Análise e previsão

O ouro interrompeu seu movimento de alta enquanto tenta se consolidar em novos máximos históricos em torno de US$ 3.045, com os touros fazendo uma pausa antes dos resultados

Irina Yanina 16:04 2025-03-19 UTC+2

O mercado de ações paga caro pela retórica de Washington

O efeito bumerangue: o que vai, volta Os EUA estão se afastando da globalização, e é apenas uma questão de tempo até que enfrentem as consequências. De acordo

Marek Petkovich 15:39 2025-03-19 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Análise e previsão

O par USD/CAD está mostrando sinais de recuperação pelo segundo dia consecutivo após uma recente queda, reagindo a partir da mínima de duas semanas, em torno de 1,4260. Os preços

Irina Yanina 15:26 2025-03-19 UTC+2

WTI ganha apoio com o aumento das tensões geopolíticas no Médio Oriente

Pelo terceiro dia consecutivo, o petróleo bruto West Texas Intermediate (WTI) continua atraindo compradores. Atualmente, a commodity é negociada ligeiramente acima do nível psicológico chave de US$ 68,00, acumulando alta

Irina Yanina 22:09 2025-03-18 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.