empty
05.06.2024 12:28 AM
The pound has updated a 2-month high and is not going to stop. Overview of GBP/USD

The pound is gaining momentum, and there are at least two reasons for this. The first reason is that after shrinking for two quarters in a row, economic growth has resumed, PMI indices are in expansion territory, and there are good chances that it will continue to rise. This reduces the burden on the Bank of England and could potentially adjust rate cuts plans for in favor of a more gradual trajectory.

This image is no longer relevant

The pace of the UK economic recovery is high, with production levels growing at the fastest rate since early 2022. There is simultaneous growth in production and new orders. Business optimism is rising, but costs are also increasing – inflation in the manufacturing sector has been rising for the fifth consecutive month and has reached its highest level in a year. If costs continue to rise, the BoE will face the threat of another round of inflation growth, making any rate cuts unlikely.

The net volume of consumer lending in April was significantly higher than forecasted, further indicating a shift in consumer sentiment. Consumers are ready to spend more as they feel more confident about their incomes, which is a sign of a pickup in GDP growth in Q2.

The second reason is the accelerated slowdown of the US economy, which might force the Federal Reserve to start lowering rates earlier. The dollar sharply declined across the board on Monday following the release of the ISM manufacturing index. Instead of the expected recovery from 49.2 to 49.6, it fell to 48.7 in May, which the markets interpreted as another sign of an emerging recession. Now, the market is focused on the ISM services index on Wednesday. The forecasts are positive (from 49.4 to 50.5), but if this gauge also falls short of expectations, the dollar could lose even more than it did on Monday, as forecasts for the first Fed rate cut might shift from September to July.

The net long EUR position increased by 1.94 billion, (the second weekly result after the euro) to 2 billion, with growth observed for the fifth consecutive week. Positioning has shifted from neutral to bullish. The price is above the long-term average and is firmly rising.

This image is no longer relevant

The pound reached the target set the previous week. It has not yet managed to consolidate above this level, but everything suggests that the next attempt will be successful. A deep correction is unlikely; we expect growth to resume after a brief consolidation, with the target being the local high of 1.2892, followed by 1.2980/3000. Increasing signs of overbought conditions could hinder growth, but these signs are not yet too evident.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

XAU/USD: Análise e previsão

O ouro está passando por uma retração corretiva hoje, com os investidores realizando lucros após seu recente aumento para um novo recorde histórico. Essa queda, embora moderada, é impulsionada

Irina Yanina 17:07 2025-04-17 UTC+2

Powell prevê uma política mais restritiva do Fed este ano

O euro mostrou pouca reação, enquanto a libra esterlina recuou levemente frente ao dólar americano após o discurso de ontem do presidente do Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. Segundo Powell

Jakub Novak 16:47 2025-04-17 UTC+2

Os mercados oscilam entre a euforia e o pânico

Se você acredita que uma recessão está se aproximando, a regra é simples: venda primeiro, faça perguntas depois. Quando o National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declarou oficialmente uma recessão

Marek Petkovich 15:43 2025-04-17 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Análise e previsão

Sobre as próximas mudanças na política monetária do Banco Central Europeu (BCE) e do Federal Reserve (Fed): A expectativa de um corte de 25 pontos-base por parte do BCE —

Irina Yanina 14:25 2025-04-17 UTC+2

Será que o euro está pronto para outro corte nas taxas?

Em breve saberemos se o euro está novamente preparado para que o Banco Central Europeu (BCE) continue a flexibilizar a política monetária. Hoje, espera-se que o BCE reduza as taxas

Jakub Novak 14:06 2025-04-17 UTC+2

Sem progresso nas negociações

Nesta semana, a União Europeia e os Estados Unidos avançaram significativamente na resolução de disputas comerciais, após autoridades do governo do presidente Donald Trump indicarem que a maior parte

Jakub Novak 20:05 2025-04-16 UTC+2

O confronto entre os EUA e a China terá um impacto negativo sobre os mercados (potencial para novas quedas na #NDX e na Litecoin)

O otimismo do mercado, impulsionado pela manipulação ativa da narrativa tarifária por parte de Donald Trump, foi de curta duração. Os traders seguem focados na escalada das tensões entre

Pati Gani 17:04 2025-04-16 UTC+2

Em que prestar atenção em 16 de abril? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Alguns eventos macroeconômicos estão programados para esta quarta-feira, com a divulgação de relatórios importantes. No entanto, a principal questão no momento não é a relevância dos dados

Paolo Greco 15:11 2025-04-16 UTC+2

O tempo trabalha contra o mercado

O tempo não está a favor de Donald Trump — tampouco do mercado acionário dos EUA. Quanto mais se prolonga a incerteza em torno da política da Casa Branca, maior

Marek Petkovich 14:32 2025-04-16 UTC+2

USD/CHF. Análise e previsão

O par USD/CHF está atraindo novos vendedores hoje, exibindo sinais de fraqueza devido às condições econômicas atuais, impulsionado por vários fatores-chave. Dólar americano fraco: O índice do dólar, que mede

Irina Yanina 14:27 2025-04-16 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.