empty
28.05.2024 12:25 AM
The bullish bias is gaining momentum. Overview of GBP/USD

The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.3% (forecast was 2.2%) in the 12 months to April 2024, down from 3.2% in the 12 months to March. This is the lowest level since July 2021, but despite the sharp drop, it still exceeded the forecast of 2.1%.

The core CPI slowed from 4.2% to 3.9%, also above the forecast of 3.6%, but for the first time since October 2021, the index fell below 4%. The growth in services prices remained high, slightly down from 6.0% to 5.9% year-on-year.

The negative impact of higher inflation was somewhat offset by the retail sales report, which showed a sharp decline in April by -2.3% (expected was -0.4%), indicating a possibility that inflation might significantly decrease in May, potentially bringing the issue of the Bank of England's rate cut back into focus. The problem is that the May inflation data will be released after the BoE's meeting, so the pound will likely reflect the market's reassessment of its outlook in favor of a bullish bias in the coming weeks.

This image is no longer relevant

The key question is whether the BoE will consider the slowdown enough to lower rates at the upcoming meeting on June 20. The chances of this step has understandably decreased; a week ago it was almost 60%, but after the report, it sharply fell to 15%, and expectations for the first rate cut have been pushed to August. The market predictably responded with increased demand for the pound. Now the main question is how sustainable the bullish momentum for the pound is.

Reports on mortgage and consumer lending will be released on Friday, which will likely allow for an adjustment of consumer activity indicators—the main factor driving domestic inflation. If so, the chances of seeing a rate cut on June 20 might increase. For now, it should be assumed that yields in the UK will remain high at least until August, maintaining demand for the pound. The outlook for the pound is bullish.

The fourth consecutive week of buying the British pound has led to a decline in the net short position, with a weekly change of +1.66 billion, the second highest among G10 currencies after the euro. A neutral bias, but the price is sharply rising, indicating that the bullish momentum is quite strong.

This image is no longer relevant

On Monday morning, the pound was trading near the resistance level of 1.2755, which we identified as the nearest target a week ago. We expect the pound to rise further, with a target of 1.2790/2810. The medium-term target shifts to the local high of 1.2892; a consolidation above this level will change the technical outlook for the pound to a more bullish one.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

GBP/JPY. Análise e previsão

Durante a sessão europeia desta segunda-feira, o par GBP/JPY se aproxima do nível de 198,30. A libra encontra algum suporte nos dados do setor imobiliário do Reino Unido: em junho

Irina Yanina 20:32 2025-07-07 UTC+2

XAU/USD: Riscos geopolíticos podem dar mais suporte ao metal precioso porto-seguro

Hoje, o ouro mostra um sinal intradiário de baixa, apesar de de sua recuperção do nível de US$ 3.300. O fortalecimento da demanda pelo dólar norte-americano continua

Irina Yanina 19:57 2025-07-07 UTC+2

O que observar no dia 7 de julho? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Pouquíssimas publicações macroeconômicas estão programadas para esta segunda-feira, e nenhuma delas é importante. Lembremos que sexta-feira foi praticamente um semi-feriado, pois os Estados Unidos comemoraram o Dia da Independência

Paolo Greco 17:36 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Os investidores não veem alternativas

A incerteza costuma ser inimiga dos investimentos — mas não em 2025. Uma combinação dupla de imprevisibilidade, vinda tanto da geopolítica quanto das tarifas impostas pela Casa Branca, não impediu

Marek Petkovich 16:50 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Bitcoin vive dias turbulentos

Sob a aparente calmaria do par BTC/USD, correntes profundas estão redesenhando silenciosamente o mercado de criptomoedas. Águas paradas são, de fato, profundas. À primeira vista, pode parecer que o mercado

Marek Petkovich 16:40 2025-07-07 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Análise e previsão.

O par USD/JPY mantém um viés de alta, sendo negociado acima do nível psicológico de 145,00. Esse movimento reflete a pressão de venda intradiária sobre o iene japonês, enquanto

Irina Yanina 16:01 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Contagem Regressiva: Três dias para evitar tarifas

Com a aproximação do dia 9 de julho — prazo fixado pelo presidente Trump —, os principais parceiros comerciais dos Estados Unidos passaram o fim de semana numa corrida contra

Jakub Novak 15:23 2025-07-07 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Análise e previsão

Na segunda-feira, o par USD/CAD avançou pelo segundo dia consecutivo, impulsionado por vários fatores. Os preços do petróleo bruto recuaram inicialmente após a decisão inesperada da OPEP+ de aumentar

Irina Yanina 15:16 2025-07-07 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Análise e previsão

O par GBP/USD começou a nova semana tentando manter o nível psicológico chave de 1,3600. No entanto, em meio a fatores fundamentais mistos, até agora não teve sucesso. A libra

Irina Yanina 14:57 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Visão geral do GBP/USD em 7 de julho de 2025

O par GBP/USD ficou praticamente estável durante toda a sexta-feira, já que a sessão nos EUA esteve praticamente parada por conta do feriado. Sem indicadores macroeconômicos relevantes, o mercado preferiu

Paolo Greco 14:41 2025-07-07 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.