empty
12.02.2024 12:03 AM
What to expect for the British pound next week?

This image is no longer relevant

Traditionally, there will be fewer events in the UK, but at least we can look forward to important ones. The British pound continues to stand firm against the US dollar, as market expectations regarding the monetary policy of the Bank of England remain the same. Market participants do not expect a rate cut in the coming months, unlike the scenarios for the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. While the euro and the dollar have their own dynamics, the British pound, despite its wave pattern, continues to hold its ground. More precisely, it continues to stay in one place.

In such a situation, I would say that news almost has no practical significance. How many important events have occurred in the last two months while the GBP/USD instrument remained in a sideways trend? Clearly, there have been many, but each time, the market refused to break out of the range. So what has changed now? GBP/USD has finally breached the important level of 1.2627, but the British pound, in the four days following the breakthrough, showed no interest in declining. What are the chances that even after significant events, the market will return to selling? In my opinion, they are not high.

This image is no longer relevant

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will start the week by delivering a speech. I don't think Bailey will change his rhetoric with every speech, but still, if we can't expect important information from the head of the BoE, then from whom? On Tuesday, reports on unemployment and wages will be released, which may surprise market participants but these reports are unlikely to change the current sentiment to a bearish one.

However, on Wednesday, an important inflation report could significantly impact the pound's current resilience. Inflation for January may just increase to 4.1%-4.2%. This means that the BoE will have even fewer reasons to talk about rate cuts or any other measures to ease financial conditions right now. Core inflation will likely remain around 5.1%. In other words, it may continue to rise without slowing down.

On Thursday, reports on GDP and industrial production will be released, followed by a retail sales report on Friday. In the current situation, I don't think these data are capable of exerting strong pressure on the pound. Based on everything I mentioned, I believe that you should focus on Bailey's speech and the inflation report.

Based on the analysis, I conclude that a bearish wave pattern is being formed. Wave 2 or b appears to be complete, so in the near future, I expect an impulsive descending wave 3 or c to form with a significant decline in the instrument. The failed attempt to break through the 1.1125 level, which corresponds to the 23.6% Fibonacci, suggests that the market is prepared to sell a month ago. I am currently considering selling. I will only consider short positions with targets around the level of 1.0462, which corresponds to 127.2% Fibonacci.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave pattern for the GBP/USD pair suggests a decline. At this time, I am considering selling the instrument with targets below the 1.2039 mark because wave 2 or b will eventually end, just like the sideways trend. I would wait for a successful attempt to break through the 1.2627 level as this will serve as a sell signal. In the near future, there could be another signal in the form of an unsuccessful attempt to break this level. If it appears, the pair could firmly fall at least to the level of 1.2468, which would already be a significant achievement for the dollar, as the demand for it remains very low.

Chin Zhao,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY: Análise e previsão

O iene japonês está em queda, cedendo parte de seus fortes ganhos semanais frente ao dólar americano. O acordo de cessar-fogo entre Israel e Hamas, juntamente com um sentimento positivo

Irina Yanina 16:53 2025-01-17 UTC+2

Novas notícias sobre a situação do mercado de gás

O mercado de gás passa por um crescimento significativo e constante, o que não surpreende, considerando os acontecimentos recentes. De acordo com relatórios recentes, após o governo Biden, que estava

Miroslaw Bawulski 15:03 2025-01-17 UTC+2

EUR/JPY: Análise e previsão

Hoje, o par EUR/JPY está tentando atrair compradores, sendo negociado ligeiramente acima do nível psicológico de 160,00. No entanto, essa alta no mercado demonstra falta de convicção devido às divergências

Irina Yanina 13:51 2025-01-17 UTC+2

Bitcoin dá o pontapé inicial na festa

O Bitcoin parece preparado para uma alta comemorativa antes da posse de Donald Trump, já que o presidente eleito prometeu transformar os Estados Unidos no centro global das criptomoedas. Relatórios

Marek Petkovich 13:28 2025-01-17 UTC+2

Em que prestar atenção em 16 de janeiro? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Diversos eventos macroeconômicos estão programados para esta quinta-feira, embora nenhum deles tenha a mesma relevância dos divulgados ontem. No Reino Unido, serão apresentados os relatórios do PIB e da produção

Paolo Greco 15:35 2025-01-16 UTC+2

EUR Sinaliza Cautela

A desaceleração da inflação subjacente nos EUA em dezembro para 0,2% mês a mês desencadeou um grande rali de risco. As ações registraram seu melhor desempenho desde as eleições presidenciais

Marek Petkovich 15:18 2025-01-16 UTC+2

USD/CAD: O par encontra apoio de vários fatores

O par USD/CAD está mostrando um impulso positivo hoje, recuperando-se do nível 1,4300 - um nível próximo à baixa semanal - e continuando seu movimento intradiário ascendente durante a primeira

Irina Yanina 13:40 2025-01-16 UTC+2

EUR/GBP: Análise e previsão

O par EUR/GBP está recuperando momentum positivo hoje, atraindo compradores próximo ao nível de 0,8400. Esse movimento interrompeu a forte correção observada no dia anterior, após o par alcançar

Irina Yanina 13:00 2025-01-16 UTC+2

Visão geral do GBP/USD: 15 de janeiro. A libra esterlina se esforça para avançar

Na terça-feira, o par de moedas GBP/USD não chegou perto da linha de média móvel. Embora um novo movimento corretivo parecesse ter começado na segunda-feira, ele rapidamente perdeu força. Durante

Paolo Greco 15:35 2025-01-15 UTC+2

Em que prestar atenção em 15 de janeiro? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Nesta quarta-feira, poucos eventos macroeconômicos estão agendados, mas quase todos têm grande relevância. No Reino Unido, foi divulgado o relatório de inflação referente a dezembro, que apresentou uma queda inesperada

Paolo Greco 14:24 2025-01-15 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.