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28.03.2025 07:26 AM
What to Pay Attention to on March 28? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

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A fair number of macroeconomic events are scheduled for Friday, but we believe they will likely trigger only a localized market reaction. The UK will publish Q4 GDP data in its third estimate and retail sales figures. Are these critical reports? Yes, they are. But yesterday, the market ignored the U.S. GDP report. In the Eurozone, the only notable release is Germany's inflation report. In the U.S., the focus will be on the PCE indices and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index. Each of these reports could spark a market response, but it's unlikely to be strong or affect the overall trend of the currency pairs throughout the day.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

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Among Friday's fundamental events, only the speeches from Federal Reserve officials Michael Barr and Raphael Bostic stand out. However, they are scheduled for late in the evening and will have no impact on the intraday movements of either currency pair. The market remains focused on news related to Donald Trump's tariffs. Nonetheless, the euro and the pound have tested nearby levels and bounced off them. We believe that a dollar rebound is possible and quite likely today. Both pairs have started a kind of corrective move.

General Conclusions:

On the fifth trading day of the week, both currency pairs could resume the declines that have been building up in recent weeks. Both pairs have settled below their ascending channels, and the Fed's position gives the dollar a chance to reclaim some of its unjustly lost ground. Again, Trump triggered a dollar drop yesterday, but this time, it was a decline—not a collapse like two weeks ago. At the moment, the British pound appears more inclined to consolidate than to enter a downward correction.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

  1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
  2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
  3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
  4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
  5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
  6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
  7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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Fundamental analysis
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