فاریکس تجزیہ اور جائزے: 06.06.2019

06.06.2019 01:46 AM

The Fed is more likely to lower rates, the dollar is ready for this

The rise of the dollar was expectedly stopped by the Fed. The currency has updated the seven-week low against the backdrop of rising expectations of interest rate cuts in response to the risks associated with trade conflicts. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did not make hints, and specifically promised that the regulator will respond "appropriately" to trade pressure. The statement immediately affected the US currency, the markets have already begun to prepare for a reduction in the Fed rate. However, given the change in the Fed's forecast and the collapse in the yield of US Treasury bonds in recent weeks, the loss of the dollar in this context looks rather subdued. If global growth worsens, the dollar will go up again.

On Thursday, the ECB will begin its meeting, and there is a high probability that the attitude of the ECB will correspond to the "dovish" tone of the Fed, and perhaps the regulator will even announce more free conditions for a new scheme of cheap lending. Concerns about a recession are spreading throughout the world, and central banks have cut interest rates in recent weeks, which may signal the beginning of a global monetary easing cycle. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its base interest rates to a record low of 1.25% and made it clear that they were ready to go further if the situation did not change. Last month, the Central Bank of New Zealand for the first time in the last 2.5 years lowered its base interest rate, trying to support the economy. Against this background, the euro is growing as well as the Australian and New Zealand dollars.