empty
05.04.2024 10:46 AM
What awaits markets in wake of US nonfarm payrolls

Most analysts again predict a deterioration in the labor market in the US, but all their expectations since the beginning of this year have turned out to be greatly underestimated. What kind of data will there be today? The number of new jobs soared from December last year to February. The question is whether there will really be a decline in March.

So, according to the consensus, the US public and private sectors are expected to create 212,000 new jobs in March, up from 275,000 in April. The unemployment rate is also expected to remain unchanged at 3.9%.

In addition to these figures, the average hourly wage will certainly attract attention. It is expected that it will slacken growth to 4.1% in annual terms from 4.3%, but in monthly terms, wages will add 0.3% in March against 0.1% in February.

Now let's look at the possible market reaction to these economic statistics.

As we previously indicated, market participants still want to believe that the Federal Reserve will cut its key interest rate three times this year. Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell again dropped a hint, arguing that the regulator was still waiting for the right moment to start cutting interest rates. You are certainly aware that the main condition for monetary easing should be a steady decline in inflation below 3% to the target level of 2% or close to it, as well as a deterioration in employment and, of course, an increase in wages, which directly stimulates demand for goods and services, boosting inflation acceleration.

But based on current principles for assessing the state of the American labor market, regular monthly job growth above 200,000 indicates good momentum. This, in turn, suggests that demand for goods and services will remain high and maintain inflationary pressure. In this case, the question arises: how the central bank can lower interest rates in such conditions? The logic of assessing the current situation, on the contrary, indicates the need to increase the interest rate by 0.25%. Otherwise, the regulator will simply need to forget about the cherished 2% mark.

If the data turns out to be in line with expectations or higher, this could destroy the Fed's timeline for a rate cut in May. In this case, the central bank will again promise to lower interest rates. But will the market believe it?

At the same time, if by some miracle, the number of new jobs falls below the landmark level of 200,000, then Powell's recent promise to cut interest rates this year will receive good motivational support. In turn, demand for stocks will skyrocket again and the dollar and Treasury yields will fall in parallel.

Time will tell which scenario we will see today.

Intraday forecast

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is consolidating above the support level of 1.2600. If NFPs data shows growth above the forecast, then the instrument may break through this support level and rush towards 1.2530. At the same time, an unexpected decline in the number of new jobs below 200,000 could support GBP/USD and encourage its growth towards 1.2725.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is also consolidating above 151.00. Negative employment news can put pressure on the instrument. So, the price is likely to drop to 149.85. But, if the number of new jobs increases, then we can expect a local increase in the pair to 153.00.

Pilih carta masa
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
jam
4
jam
1
hari
1
minggu
Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    SERTAI PERADUAN

Artikel yang dicadangkan

WTI. West Texas Intermediate. Pedagang Menantikan Data NFP

Harga minyak mentah West Texas Intermediate (WTI) kekal di pertengahan julat dagangan tiga hari. Harga disokong oleh harapan terhadap kesinambungan semula rundingan perdagangan antara Amerika Syarikat dan China, yang meningkatkan

Irina Yanina 11:23 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Keputusan Mesyuarat ECB dan Sidang Media Christine Lagarde

Euro melonjak dengan ketara susulan keputusan ECB untuk menurunkan kadar faedah. Namun, mengapa perkara ini berlaku? Mari kita huraikan. Punca utama kepada pengukuhan euro adalah kenyataan Presiden ECB, Christine Lagarde

Jakub Novak 10:54 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Apakah yang Perlu Diberikan Perhatian pada 6 Jun? Analisis Acara Asas kepada Pedagang Baharu

Analisis Laporan Makroekonomi: Sebilangan besar penerbitan makroekonomi dijadualkan pada hari Jumaat, namun kebanyakannya tidak akan menarik minat para pedagang. Sebagai contoh, laporan mengenai pengeluaran perindustrian di Jerman atau laporan jualan

Paolo Greco 10:11 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Gambaran keseluruhan untuk pasangan GBP/USD pada 6 Jun 2025

Pasangan mata wang GBP/USD meneruskan pergerakan menaik pada hari Khamis, dengan dagangan secara keseluruhan berlangsung tenang dan tanpa tergesa-gesa. Tiada sebarang berita untuk pound British mahupun dolar AS pada hari

Paolo Greco 05:47 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Gambaran keseluruhan untuk EUR/USD pada 6 Jun 2025

Pasangan mata wang EUR/USD terus berdagang dengan sangat tenang pada hari Khamis, walaupun apabila keputusan mesyuarat ECB diumumkan. Perlu dinyatakan bahawa tiada sebarang unsur kejutan dalam acara ini. Jauh sebelum

Paolo Greco 05:21 2025-06-06 UTC+2

Ekonomi EU Tidak Akan Terjejas, Menurut Lagarde

Hari ini, mesyuarat pengawal selia Eropah telah diadakan, di mana keputusan yang jelas dan dijangka telah dibuat untuk menurunkan ketiga-tiga kadar faedah sebanyak 25 mata asas lagi. Keputusan ini dibuat

Chin Zhao 02:56 2025-06-06 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analisis dan Ramalan

Semasa sesi Eropah pada hari Khamis, yen Jepun kekal stabil, membolehkan pasangan USD/JPY untuk bertahan di atas paras penting 143.00 di tengah-tengah kenaikan sederhana dolar AS. Para pelabur yakin bahawa

Irina Yanina 12:04 2025-06-05 UTC+2

AUD/JPY. Analisis dan Ramalan

Hari ini pasangan AUD/JPY menarik pembeli baru. Data terbaru dari China, termasuk kajian swasta Caixin, menunjukkan peningkatan pertumbuhan sederhana dalam sektor perkhidmatan China pada bulan Mei: PMI meningkat dari 50.7

Irina Yanina 11:36 2025-06-05 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analisis dan Ramalan

Pasangan USD/CAD terus mengalami penurunan. Faktor-faktor fundamental menyokong sentimen menurun, menunjukkan bahawa laluan paling sedikit rintangan untuk harga spot kekal ke bawah. Laporan perjanjian perdagangan antara A.S. dan Kanada, yang

Irina Yanina 11:33 2025-06-05 UTC+2

Pasaran Menemui Sisi Baik dalam Berita Buruk

Pasaran telah meningkat selama tiga hari berturut-turut, mentafsirkan situasi semasa sebagai ketidakpastian dagangan yang meluas — jauh daripada kejatuhan pasaran. Ini membolehkan pendekatan yang lebih tenang dan rasional. Keadaannya tidak

Marek Petkovich 09:20 2025-06-05 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
Panggilan semula Widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.