empty
25.04.2022 02:25 PM
GBP/USD: Does Bank of England intend to continue raising repo rate?

What is better for the currency: when your Central Bank is marking time or took two steps forward, promised a third, and then abruptly hit the brakes? The growth of EURGBP quotes shows that investors like the first option more. While the ECB is just about to say goodbye to QE and start raising rates, the Bank of England has already raised them twice. With regard to the third act of monetary restriction in a row, a snag has come out, which makes the pound fall into the abyss.

The factor of different rates of monetary policy has a particularly sharp effect on the GBPUSD pair. The futures market is confident that at the next two FOMC meetings, the federal funds rate will increase by 100 basis points, and by the end of 2022 – up to 3%. At the same time, the disappointing statistics on the UK casts doubt on the advisability of tightening BoE's monetary policy at the third MPC meeting in a row.

In April, business activity in Britain fell to a 3-month low, retail sales sank 1.4%, which is significantly worse than Bloomberg's forecast of -0.3%, and consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. Over the past three decades, inflation, higher taxes, and skyrocketing energy bills have been pushing the UK economy into recession. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey also speaks about it. According to Bailey, the regulator is teetering on the brink of overcoming an excessively rapid rise in prices, on the one hand, and preventing a recession in the economy, on the other.

Dynamics of business activity in Britain

This image is no longer relevant

The problem of high inflation is now not discussed only by the lazy. The IMF warns that due to skyrocketing prices, Britain's GDP will suffer the greatest losses among the G7 countries. According to an authoritative organization, economic growth in the UK in 2022 and 2023 will be 1 percentage point lower than in the January forecast.

IMF forecasts for GDP and inflation in G7 countries

This image is no longer relevant

Thus, signs of a slowdown in the economy with a simultaneous acceleration in consumer prices, which can only be called stagflation, are forcing the Bank of England to put on the brakes after two rises in the repo rate in a row. All the more surprising is the hawkish speech of MPC member Catherine Mann. Mann began to talk about the possibility of borrowing costs rising not by 25 basis points, but by 50 basis points at the May meeting of the BoE, which surprised investors a lot.

Nonetheless, Mann's speech may not change the mood in the market in any way. Ultimately, the Bank of England depends on input data, and not on the opinion of a single member of the Monetary Policy Committee. This circumstance, coupled with weak statistics on Britain and the intention of the Fed to bring the federal funds rate to a neutral level of 2.25-2.5% as soon as possible, makes the GBPUSD quotes fall.

Technically, the departure of the pair significantly below the fair value, its lower limit, and moving averages indicates the complete dominance of the bears on the market. In such conditions, the focus should be on selling GBPUSD in case of a daily close below the support at 1.275, or on growth, followed by a rebound from the resistance at 1.279 and 1.287.

GBPUSD, Daily chart

This image is no longer relevant

Ringkasan
Segera
Analitic
Igor Kovalyov
Mulakan perdagangan
Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    SERTAI PERADUAN

Artikel yang dicadangkan

EUR/JPY. Analisis dan Ramalan

Hari ini menandakan hari keempat berturut-turut bagi EUR/JPY mengalami aliran menaik, yang juga merupakan sesi positif keenam dalam tujuh hari terakhir. Harga spot telah mencapai paras tertinggi baharu dalam tempoh

Irina Yanina 11:58 2025-08-13 UTC+2

Pasaran Tidak Sempat Untuk Panik

Yang terburuk berjaya dielakkan. Itu sudah memadai untuk mendorong S&P 500 mencatat paras tertinggi baharu yang ke-16 tahun ini. Data inflasi AS bagi bulan Julai tidak memberi isyarat kemelesetan atau

Marek Petkovich 09:57 2025-08-13 UTC+2

Pengurangan Kadar Fed dan Kejayaan dalam Krisis Ukraine untuk Memberi Manfaat kepada Pasaran Kewangan (Kemungkinan Penurunan Bitcoin dan #USDX)

Laporan inflasi yang diterbitkan pada hari Selasa telah mengukuhkan jangkaan peserta pasaran bahawa bank pusat A.S. akan menurunkan kadar faedah pada mesyuarat September, sekali gus memberi laluan kepada pertumbuhan berterusan

Pati Gani 09:44 2025-08-13 UTC+2

Apa yang Perlu Diperhatikan pada 13 Ogos? Ulasan Peristiwa Fundamental untuk Pedagang Baharu

Hanya satu pelepasan makroekonomi dijadualkan pada hari Rabu — anggaran kedua bagi inflasi bulan Julai di Jerman. Dalam EU, anggaran kedua secara umumnya tidak berbeza daripada yang pertama, inflasi Jerman

Paolo Greco 06:58 2025-08-13 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan GBP/USD – 13 Ogos: Menunggu Hari Jumaat...

Pada hari Selasa, pasangan mata wang GBP/USD sekali lagi didagangkan dengan agak perlahan. Pada pagi hari, UK mengeluarkan data pengangguran dan gaji, namun, angka tersebut terlalu "biasa." Secara dasarnya, hanya

Paolo Greco 03:49 2025-08-13 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan EUR/USD – 13 Ogos: Trump dan China Mencapai Perjanjian — Sekali Lagi, Secara Sementara

Pasangan mata wang EUR/USD sekali lagi didagangkan dalam keadaan agak tenang. Walaupun pergerakannya tidak sepenuhnya mendatar, tahap turun naik kekal rendah. Ketika ini, tiada julat mendatar yang jelas, namun juga

Paolo Greco 03:49 2025-08-13 UTC+2

Adakah kemungkinan terdapat 'ralat' dalam laporan inflasi?

Laporan inflasi AS terkini, tanpa berselindung, benar-benar memberikan kesan yang mengagumkan. Meskipun Amerika Syarikat mengenakan tarif import tertinggi sekurang-kurangnya dalam tempoh 50 tahun terakhir, kadar inflasi hampir tidak menunjukkan percepatan

Chin Zhao 00:29 2025-08-13 UTC+2

Gencatan Senjata Dicapai, tetapi Tiada Perjanjian Perdagangan

Pada hari Selasa, dolar AS menerima berita positif pertamanya dalam beberapa minggu kebelakangan ini. Pasaran seakan terlupa bahawa Donald Trump pernah berjaya menandatangani perjanjian perdagangan dengan Jepun dan Kesatuan Eropah

Chin Zhao 00:29 2025-08-13 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Apakah Petunjuk Laporan Pertumbuhan CPI AS?

Laporan pertumbuhan Indeks Harga Pengguna (CPI) AS terbaru menunjukkan keadaan inflasi utama (headline inflation) yang tidak berubah serta percepatan inflasi teras (core inflation). Namun, pasaran mentafsirkan data ini secara negatif

Irina Manzenko 00:29 2025-08-13 UTC+2

Dolar Memecahkan Peraturan

Untuk membina sesuatu yang baharu, segala-galanya perlu dirombak terlebih dahulu. Inilah prinsip yang dipegang oleh Donald Trump dalam usahanya merombak semula sistem perdagangan antarabangsa. Akibatnya, prinsip yang telah terbukti selama

Marek Petkovich 00:29 2025-08-13 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
Panggilan semula Widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.