Analisis Forex & Kajian: 02.03.2022 - Risk of US banks in Russia

02.03.2022 01:09 PM

Risk of US banks in Russia

Analysts believe that the risks of American banks in Russia may not be fully understood by investors due to the lack of transparency in the disclosure of information. Banks that generate significant revenue from global operations may suffer in the long run.

The amount of risk disclosed by US banks at the moment is $ 14.7 billion. Compared to Italian, French and Austrian banks, which together have just over $ 42.5 billion of investments in Russia, US banks seem to be less exposed to risk.

However, on Monday, the American bank Citigroup surprised analysts by saying that its total investment in Russia is almost $ 10 billion, which is much higher than previously reported.

The new figure took into account funds held in the Bank of Russia and other financial organizations. Reverse REPO operations and additional risks to Russian counterparties.

The revised Citigroup amount raised the question of whether other banks have higher risks than disclosed so far.

In a research note published on Tuesday, JPMorgan analyst Kian Abuhosein noted that the overall transparency of banking transactions is very low with Russia.

Only a few American banks have quantified their risks in Russia.

In addition to Citi, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported net risks of US $ 293 million in Russia, as well as market risks of US $ 414 million.

Bank of New York Mellon Corp. stated that its risk in Russia is less than $ 100 million.

Morgan Stanley does not disclose its risks.

According to Citi analyst Ken Usdin: although American banks seem to have less financial dependence on Russia than their European counterparts, they may be indirectly affected by their business. Considering the significant revenues that some of them receive from global business.

According to Usdin, Citi, JPMorgan, and trust banks such as State Street Corp may face a greater risk of their earnings.

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Irina Yanina,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
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