empty
12.09.2019 12:59 AM
What exactly and on what scale will the ECB do?

This image is no longer relevant

Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, believes the ECB seems to have agreed on what to do, but the recent comments of several hawks indicate that the heated debate is still ongoing. Traditional hawks, such as Jens Weidmann from Germany, Klaas Knot from the Netherlands and Sabina Lautenschlager on the ECB Executive Council, opposed the restart of QE. "In our opinion, even if the group of skeptic hawks has grown, it still looks like a minority. Since inflationary expectations are likely to be far from the ECB's goals, which means that the vast majority will support new incentives. And, even despite the opposition, it is doubtful that this is only a reduction in the rate. In this regard, and for a better understanding of what the ECB is currently thinking of doing, we should pay attention to the speech of the ECB chief economist Philip Lane."

According to data provided by Lane, the ECB's unconventional measures since 2014 have boosted economic growth and inflation by about 0.5 percentage points. It is worth noting that almost half of the impact gave QE. However, when the ECB launched QE in 2015, inflation was expected to accelerate from 0.5% in 2014 to 1.3% in 2016. Currently, there is a risk of a serious pullback up to deflation due to actual economic stagnation and low inflation, the likelihood of this is as high as in 2014/5. "Thus, we expect the ECB to launch a "final firework": a 20 bp cut in deposit rates, a revaluation of TLTRO and a restart of QE with a budget of about 30 billion euros per month. At the same time, there is a risk that the opposition, the "hawks", will convince them to slightly delay the launch of QE," Brzeski said.

Irina Maksimova,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Pilih carta masa
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
jam
4
jam
1
hari
1
minggu
Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    SERTAI PERADUAN

Artikel yang dicadangkan

Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
Panggilan semula Widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.