empty
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
05.02.2025 10:00 AM
S&P500: gap closed
Open trading account Open demo account

"To subdue the enemy without fighting is the pinnacle of skill." This is precisely what Donald Trump is trying to achieve. His decision to postpone the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada until March 1 allowed the S&P 500 to quickly close its February gap. If investors were frightened, that fear vanished almost instantly.

Once again, greed dominates the stock market, but the real question is—how long will it last? One thing is clear: high volatility is here to stay!

Over the past four years, investors have come to know Trump's tactics inside out. The Republican president is seen as a showman—loudly threatening tariffs, only to cancel them later. But no one expected him to reverse course as quickly as he did in early February.

The S&P 500 opened February with a downward gap, only to quickly recover. Given that the index's fundamental valuation remains near record highs, this should surprise no one.

Dynamic of S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio

This image is no longer relevant

Investors need to get used to the rollercoaster ride. For those who believe that Trump's bark is worse than his bite, it might be time to shift focus to assets outside the US, which at least appear less expensive.

However, the risk of prolonged tariffs remains high. The White House sees import duties as a tool to balance US trade, generate additional foreign revenue, and bring manufacturing back to the US. And Trump is starting to wield this weapon.

The real question is how protectionist policies will impact the US economy. During his first presidential term, Trump created a cushion of fiscal stimulus before escalating trade wars. This time, things are different.

Bond market signals stagflation risks

The bond market reacted sharply, indicating a rising risk of stagflation.

  • Yields on short-term bonds surged in response to tariff news on Canada, Mexico, and China.
  • Long-term bond yields, on the other hand, went down.

This environment is unfavorable for the stock market. No surprise that Wall Street analysts are cutting earnings forecasts for S&P 500 companies.

Forecasts of S&P 500 earnings

This image is no longer relevant

According to Goldman Sachs, even without factoring in tighter financial conditions and changes in consumer and corporate behavior, Trump's tariffs could reduce profit forecasts by 2–3% and increase the risk of a 5% pullback in the S&P 500.

This image is no longer relevant

However, if the tariffs haven't been imposed yet, there's nothing to fear. Right? Even the one-day delay in US-China trade talks failed to rattle investors.

For some reason, everyone seems convinced that the 10% tariff against China will be scrapped as well. But isn't it a bit too early to celebrate?

Technical outlook for S&P 500

On the daily chart, the rapid gap closure and confident breakout above fair value signal that bulls have regained control. A successful breakout of the pivot resistance at 6,040 would provide a solid argument for long positions.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
U.S. Dollar – Weekly Preview The American news background will once again play a key role for the dollar and, therefore, for the market and the vast majority of instruments. This past week, only
Chin Zhao
00:34 2025-06-30 +02:00
1195
Fundamental analysis
British Pound – Weekly Preview The situation for the British pound in the market and news landscape is quite similar. For the pound, two rate cuts by the Bank of England in 2025 or zero
Chin Zhao
00:34 2025-06-30 +02:00
1195
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

U.S. Dollar – Weekly Preview

The American news background will once again play a key role for the dollar and, therefore, for the market and the vast majority of instruments. This past week, only
Chin Zhao 00:34 2025-06-30 UTC+2

British Pound – Weekly Preview

The situation for the British pound in the market and news landscape is quite similar. For the pound, two rate cuts by the Bank of England in 2025 or zero
Chin Zhao 00:34 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Euro Currency – Weekly Preview

In the upcoming week, the euro is expected to maintain demand in the market. Currently, all events are aligning in its favor. I previously wrote that only the wave structure
Chin Zhao 00:33 2025-06-30 UTC+2

The Yen Has Lost Its Bullish Momentum

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Tokyo region declined in June from 3.4% to 3.1% year-over-year, marking the first signal so far that may indicate a slowdown in price
Kuvat Raharjo 12:21 2025-06-27 UTC+2

EUR/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/JPY pair is regaining positive momentum during today's trading session, reversing its recent decline.The euro continues to benefit from the prevailing sentiment of selling the U.S. dollar
Irina Yanina 12:17 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Inflation in Canada Remains Too High – USD/CAD May Accelerate Its Decline

Inflation in Canada remains too high to expect a rate cut by the Bank of Canada at its upcoming meeting. In April, inflation sharply slowed to 1.7% y/y, and most
Kuvat Raharjo 11:16 2025-06-27 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is drawing renewed selling interest today after breaking below the key $3300 level. Traders are awaiting the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which
Irina Yanina 10:47 2025-06-27 UTC+2

PCE Index Data Unlikely to Significantly Impact Market Dynamics (Potential for Renewed Growth in EUR/USD and Bitcoin)

The easing of tensions in the markets, following a pause in the military conflict in the Middle East, supports the return of the previous paradigm—an increase in demand for stocks
Pati Gani 09:52 2025-06-27 UTC+2

The Market Is Off the Leash

Greed has returned to the markets. While professionals warn about the need for caution amid geopolitical uncertainty, trade wars, and the state of the U.S. economy, retail investors are once
Marek Petkovich 09:16 2025-06-27 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 27? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are relatively few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday. Some experts refer to the PCE indicator as "important" and "the Fed's favorite," but we do not share that view
Paolo Greco 07:02 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 06:00 UTC--5
EUR/USD – Weekly Preview: ISM Indexes, Nonfarm Payrolls, Eurozone Inflation, and "One Big Beautiful Bill"
00:33 2025-06-30
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 08:00 UTC--5
Euro Currency – Weekly Preview
00:33 2025-06-30
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 11:00 UTC--5
U.S. Dollar – Weekly Preview
00:34 2025-06-30
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 10:00 UTC--5
British Pound – Weekly Preview
00:34 2025-06-30
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 11:00 UTC--5
Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for June 27-30, 2025: buy above $3,250 or sell below $3,320 (rebound - 6/8 Murray)
18:12 2025-06-27
Technical analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.