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23.04.2025 09:03 AM
Markets Await a Massive Rally if the U.S. Starts Real Negotiations with China (There is a likelihood of continued growth in #NDX and Ethereum)
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A new wave of euphoria has swept through the markets. Many believe it's not a coincidence: take everything away from a person and then provide them with even the smallest amount, and they'll feel happiness. So, what is driving this renewed optimism in the markets?

On Tuesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary S. Bessent said he expects an easing of tensions in the trade war between the U.S. and China, noting that the current tariffs are "unrealistic." This news boosted hopes that the White House might walk back its decision to impose a 145% tariff on imports from China. The announcement increased demand for dollar assets after Monday's drop in stock prices, bond yields, and the dollar itself. Further optimism came from President Trump's statement that he does not plan to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Naturally, market participants seized this news and began buying risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, the dollar, and Treasuries. Meanwhile, gold prices, having hit another all-time high, pulled back and were at 3339.00 at the time of writing.

Back to Bessent's message—it essentially signals that the U.S. is beginning to consider resolving its standoff with China and is open to finding a compromise. This reflects a familiar Trump tactic: apply pressure, back off, lock in a gain. Demand more, and you'll get what you want. But the question remains—will Beijing play along? That's not so clear. It seems the U.S. is starting to realize that strong-arm tactics toward China may not succeed and that real negotiations are necessary.

This is precisely what the markets have picked up on. The positive reaction stems from the potential for real, mutually respectful negotiations. We may be witnessing a genuine shift in Trump's policy, which could set off a powerful rally in stock markets, increased demand for Treasuries, and a strengthening of the dollar on the Forex market. Improving sentiment overall, plus the reassurance that Trump doesn't plan to replace Powell—at least for now—could be a turning point. However, this will only hold if Trump doesn't revert to pressuring China or pushing the Fed to cut rates.

Can we hope that this mostly verbal easing of tensions will support demand for risk assets and tokens and strengthen the dollar?

Only real actions following the words of Bessent and Trump can be the true drivers of a broad rally in equity markets, a significant drop in gold prices, and growing demand for commodity assets—especially oil. As for the dollar, it might rebound briefly, but fundamental factors still point to weakness. Chief among them is slowing inflation, which, if it continues this month, could be a strong signal for the Fed to cut rates by 0.25% at the May or June meeting. Markets are aware of this, making it unlikely to see aggressive dollar buying.

What to expect on the markets today:

The rally that began in the U.S. equity markets yesterday is likely to continue. The dollar's growth will likely stall, as will gold prices. Cryptocurrencies will continue to gain support, as will oil. The most significant moves will likely occur during the U.S. session since much of the price action has already played out during Asian trading hours.

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This image is no longer relevant

Forecast of the Day:

#NDX

Expectations of real negotiations between Beijing and Washington on tariffs are supporting the CFD contract for the NASDAQ 100 futures. On this news, tech sector stocks have surged. Demand for these assets may continue, supporting further growth in the NASDAQ 100 and its futures. If this scenario plays out, the contract could break above 18,603.00, with a potential further rise toward 19,229.00. The buy trigger could be the 18,736.50 level.

Ethereum

The cryptocurrency surged as market tensions eased and hopes rose that Beijing and Washington would resolve the tariff crisis. On this wave of optimism, the token may continue to see strong demand and rise toward 1952.45. The level of 1837.81 could serve as an entry point for buying.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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