empty
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
29.01.2025 11:25 AM
Wave analysis of BTC/USD on January 29. Bitcoin neglects all headwinds
Open trading account Open demo account

This image is no longer relevant

The BTC/USD wave structure looks clear on the 4-hour chart. Following a prolonged and complex corrective a-b-c-d-e structure formed between March 14 and August 5, a new impulse wave has emerged. It is already taking shape as a five-wave formation. Based on the size of wave 1, wave 5 is likely to be dwarf. Given this structure, I do not expect Bitcoin to rise above $110,000–$115,000 in the coming months.

Wave 4 has formed a three-wave pattern, confirming the correctness of the current wave analysis. Since the formation of wave 5 has begun, it is time to look for buying opportunities. However, as mentioned earlier, this wave could end very soon—or may have already completed.

Bitcoin's growth has been fueled by a steady influx of institutional investments, including from hedge funds, government entities, and pension funds. However, Trump's policies could force investors to exit the market, and no trend can remain bullish indefinitely.

The market ignores sell signals

On Tuesday, BTC/USD dropped another $1,000, yet market participants continue buying aggressively, pushing the world's leading cryptocurrency back toward its recent peaks. In my view, this behavior is puzzling, as everything seems aligned for a corrective trend phase to begin.

Of course, large market players have their own logic—firms like MicroStrategy refuse to consider anything except buying. Perhaps Bitcoin does have a bullish future, and one day its price might reach $1,000,000. In that case, the strategy is simple—buy at any price and hold.

However, when trading Bitcoin, it is unusual to see trends without corrections, with the market completely ignoring negative factors. Many traders had been anticipating an "altcoin season", yet it never arrived. Altcoins (except for the largest ones) have lost interest among investors. Even Ethereum is declining, while Bitcoin remains stable.

Donald Trump promised to create a national Bitcoin reserve immediately after his re-election. However, he quickly forgot about that promise as has happened with many other pledges. In my opinion, the US government will not buy Bitcoin for reserves at current prices—why would they, if they can wait for a better entry point? However, for that to happen, Bitcoin needs to drop significantly.

Right now, I see another speculative bubble forming in the cryptocurrency market. Every bubble bursts sooner or later. Even though Bitcoin is carrying on rising, it will eventually face a major collapse. In this situation, I cannot recommend buying BTC, no matter how attractive it may seem.

Conclusions

Based on my BTC/USD analysis, I believe Bitcoin's growth phase is nearing its end. This may be an unpopular opinion, but wave 5 could end up shortened, leading to either a sharp collapse or a prolonged correction. Therefore, I do not recommend buying BTC at this stage.

If wave 5 starts forming an extended five-wave structure, then a convincing wave 2 correction should appear within it. At the moment, wave 2 is visible, but it is not strong enough to confirm further growth. At least one more decline is likely ahead.

On a higher time frame, Bitcoin is forming a five-wave bullish structure. However, this suggests that a corrective or bearish trend may soon begin.

This image is no longer relevant

Key principles of my analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear – complex structures are harder to trade as they frequently shift unexpectedly.

2. If there is no clear market direction, it's better to stay out.

3. There is never 100% certainty in price movements. Always use Stop Loss orders.

4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of technical analysis and trading strategies.

Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Wave analysis
EUR/USD Analysis on May 9, 2025 The wave structure on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has transformed into a bullish pattern. I believe there's little doubt that this shift was driven solely by the new U.S. trade
Chin Zhao
19:19 2025-05-09 +02:00
1930
Wave analysis
GBP/USD Analysis on May 9, 2025 The wave pattern for the GBP/USD instrument has also shifted into a bullish, impulsive structure—"thanks" to Donald Trump. The wave picture is almost identical to that of EUR/USD. Until February
Chin Zhao
19:16 2025-05-09 +02:00
1630
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Bitcoin spikes from $96 600 to $104 500 in 24 hours

Bitcoin has surged to $104,500, after trading at $96,600 just yesterday morning. This confident move above the $100,000 mark clearly signals a return of strong bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency
Jakub Novak 14:49 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on May 9

Bitcoin has climbed above $100,000, while Ethereum is trying to consolidate above $2,000. After yesterday's sharp rally, which continued during today's Asian session, Bitcoin is now trading at $103,000, having
Miroslaw Bawulski 09:46 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement Ethereum Cryptocurrency, Friday May 09, 2025.

If we look at the 4-hour chart of the Ethereum cryptocurrency, it appears that the price movement is moving above the WMA (30 Shift 2) which also has a slope
Arief Makmur 06:27 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement Bitcoin Cryptocurrency, Friday May 09, 2025.

On the 4-hour chart of the Bitcoin cryptocurrency, the Stochastic Oscillator indicator can be seen to be in Overbought conditions and is now preparing to Cross SELL and break below
Arief Makmur 06:27 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Bitcoin: Who's Driving the Price Up — Powell, the U.S. Treasury, or Short Squeezes?

While stock indices remain stagnant, gold consolidates near its highs, and Bitcoin is once again capturing attention. The crypto market's flagship has approached the psychologically important $100,000 level
Ekaterina Kiseleva 00:28 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on May 8

Bitcoin reached just below $100,000, while Ethereum hit $1,900. Such a major growth in the cryptocurrency market once again confirms its bullish outlook, which has been discussed quite
Miroslaw Bawulski 09:22 2025-05-08 UTC+2

Bitcoin on the Brink: Breakout or Reversal?

Bitcoin's price is hovering near a psychologically significant threshold, with market participants bracing for another upward surge or a sudden reversal that could erase short-term bullish expectations. More chart
Ekaterina Kiseleva 01:16 2025-05-08 UTC+2

Crypto market opens with buoyant growth

US stock index futures surged sharply at the opening of today's trading session on news that representatives from the US and China have resumed consultations on trade matters. Media reports
Jurij Tolin 14:14 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on May 7

Bitcoin and Ethereum Show Further Growth Amid Positive Crypto Legislation News Bitcoin is currently trading at $96,700, having rebounded from a low of $93,400, while Ethereum has recovered
Miroslaw Bawulski 10:32 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Bitcoin Gathers Strength: The Market Prepares for the Next Wave

Bitcoin is trading in the $93,000–$94,000 range, about 0.5% below its recent local high of $97,900, recorded on May 2. Volatility has decreased, and the market seems
Ekaterina Kiseleva 01:23 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 02:00 2025-05-14 UTC--4
Markets Will Open Their Eyes and Close Their Ears
11:10 2025-05-09
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 00:00 2025-05-23 UTC--4
Trading Signals for EUR/USD for May 8-12, 2025: buy above 1.1190 (200 EMA - 6/8 Murray)
06:41 2025-05-09
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 09:00 2025-05-23 UTC--4
Trading Signals for GOLD for May 9-12, 2025: sell below $3,361 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)
15:01 2025-05-09
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 08:00 UTC--4
The Dollar Shot Itself in the Foot
00:28 2025-05-09
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 03:00 2025-05-13 UTC--4
The Market Will Save Itself
10:13 2025-05-08
Fundamental analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.