empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
14.04.2025 12:28 PM
Forecast for EUR/USD on April 14, 2025
Open trading account Open demo account

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued to rise but pulled back in the second half of the day. The decline (i.e., dollar strengthening) was short-lived, and by the end of Friday, the US dollar had once again posted significant losses. The current market situation suggests there is nothing stopping the dollar from continuing its decline on a daily basis. The informational backdrop is simply too strong for traders to pause midway. At the same time, over the weekend, there were no new aggressive signals from Trump, which could lead to reduced trading activity.

This image is no longer relevant

The last completed downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the new upward wave broke the prior high. This currently indicates the continuation of a bullish trend. Donald Trump continues to introduce new import tariffs, and markets remain gripped by panic and chaos. Bulls re-entered the market last week, and there are clear and logical reasons for that.

The news backdrop on Friday was much weaker than in the previous days. Trump, of course, raised tariffs on Chinese goods to an unthinkable 145%, and China responded by increasing its own tariffs to 125%. However, it seems these figures may mark the upper limit. Any further increase would appear absurd or comical and lack practical sense. Personally, I believe both sides will eventually sit down at the negotiating table. The only question is when. If Trump refrains from raising tariffs on China this week, the dollar might find some temporary relief.

Remember, Trump can only impose new tariffs against China right now, as he has granted a 90-day pause to all other countries. So, this week, the dollar might see some improvement. Still, the US–China trade war is such a significant event that it's impossible to be fully confident that the market has already priced everything in.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to rise toward the 127.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1495. The trade war, in the full sense of the word, has only just begun. Therefore, I cannot forecast a rise or fall in the pair solely based on the current data. Movements will depend entirely on the news backdrop, which may continue to flow in a steady stream this week. The bullish trend remains intact. A bounce from the 1.1495 level would suggest a potential reversal in favor of the US currency and a moderate decline.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

During the most recent reporting week, professional traders opened 7,049 long positions and closed 1,096 short positions. The sentiment of the Non-commercial group has recently turned bullish again – thanks to Donald Trump. Total long positions held by speculators now amount to 190,000 and total short positions are at 130,000.

For 20 weeks straight, large players were shedding euro positions, but for the past 9 weeks, they've been reducing short positions and building long ones. The divergence in monetary policy approaches between the ECB and the Fed still supports the US dollar, but Trump's policies are now a more influential factor for traders. His actions may push the Fed toward a more dovish stance and potentially trigger a recession in the US economy.

News Calendar for the US and Eurozone:

On April 14, the economic calendar contains no significant entries. Therefore, the influence of the news background on market sentiment may be minimal on Monday — unless new tariff announcements emerge over the weekend. Such headlines remain the main market driver right now.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Buy or sell opportunities for the pair today should be considered only if clear signals appear around key levels on the hourly chart. However, I'd like to stress again that movements will mostly depend on the news background, not the technical setup.

Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.0957–1.0733 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast The USD/CAD pair is showing a modest recovery from levels below 1.3600, retracing most of the previous day's losses, supported by a rebound in the U.S. dollar. In addition, concerns
Irina Yanina
13:09 2025-06-13 +02:00
1300
Fundamental analysis
AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast The AUD/JPY pair has been under selling pressure for the third consecutive day, reaching an almost two-week low around 92.30 during Friday's Asian session. After a sharp drop, spot prices
Irina Yanina
12:53 2025-06-13 +02:00
1120
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 13, 2025

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement and consolidated above the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1574. However, during the night, a sharp reversal occurred in favor
Samir Klishi 11:52 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on June 13, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rebounded from the 1.3520 level, surged to the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3620, bounced off it twice, and then fell back
Samir Klishi 11:49 2025-06-13 UTC+2

EUR/USD. June 12. A Setback for the Dollar

Good day, dear traders! On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement after rebounding from the support zone of 1.1374–1.1380. It successfully consolidated above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level
Samir Klishi 10:15 2025-06-12 UTC+2

GBP/USD. June 12. British Economy Falters

Good day, dear traders! On the hourly chart, on Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair reversed in favor of the British pound and consolidated above the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3520
Samir Klishi 10:15 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Daily Price Movement Crude Oil Commodity Instrument, Thursday June 12, 2025.

If we look at the daily chart of the Crude Oil commodity instrument, there appears to be a Divergence between the price movement of #CL and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator
Arief Makmur 08:10 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Nasdaq 100 Index, Thursday June 12, 2025.

On the 4-hour chart of the Nasdaq 100 index, there is a divergence between its price movement and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator, especially with the current confirmation of the price
Arief Makmur 08:10 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for June 12-19, 2025: sell below 1.1500 (21 SMA - 8/8 Murray)

If the euro price falls below 1.1500 in the coming hours, this could be seen as an opportunity to sell. Technically, it appears overbought on the H4 chart and could
Dimitrios Zappas 05:33 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for June 12-19, 2025: sell below $3,386 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)

The XAU/USD trend remains bullish as long as the price consolidates above 3,331. Therefore, it would be prudent to buy gold as long as the price consolidates above 3,359, where
Dimitrios Zappas 05:32 2025-06-12 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for June 12, 2025

The U.S. inflation data released on Wednesday stirred the markets: the dollar index dropped by 0.47%, WTI oil surged by 5.54%, gold rose by 1.27%, and 5-year U.S. Treasury yields
Laurie Bailey 04:40 2025-06-12 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for June 12, 2025

On Wednesday, the British pound successfully avoided a decline below technical support levels, reversing upward from them. The price rebounded from the MACD indicator line on the daily chart, while
Laurie Bailey 04:40 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 19:00 2025-06-13 UTC--5
EUR/USD Overview – June 13: America's Economy Gets Lucky
03:41 2025-06-13
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 19:00 2025-06-13 UTC--5
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on June 13: Weak GDP Spoiled the Picture for the Pound.
03:41 2025-06-13
Trading plan
Relevance up to 19:00 2025-06-13 UTC--5
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on June 13: Trump Warns of Tariff Hikes
03:40 2025-06-13
Trading plan
Relevance up to 01:00 2025-06-14 UTC--5
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 13. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades
09:04 2025-06-13
Forecast
Relevance up to 19:00 2025-06-13 UTC--5
GBP/USD Overview – June 13: The Court Won't Stop Donald Trump!
03:41 2025-06-13
Fundamental analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.