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25.03.2025 07:29 PM
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 25th (U.S. Session)
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Trade Breakdown and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 150.68 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, which seemed like a good entry point for buying the dollar. However, as you can see on the chart, the upward movement did not materialize, resulting in a loss.

In the second half of the day, investor attention will focus on U.S. macroeconomic data, which may significantly influence the dollar's trajectory. Of particular interest are the consumer confidence figures, reflecting the sentiment of U.S. consumers and their willingness to spend. A rise in this indicator may signal economic strength and support dollar demand, potentially halting the USD/JPY downtrend.

Equally important is the new home sales report. An increase in housing market activity would indicate a healthy construction sector and broader economic stability, which could also benefit the dollar.

Another factor likely to influence the market is the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. This regional indicator provides insight into industrial activity and can be a leading signal of nationwide trends.

Finally, FOMC member John Williams' speech may shed light on the Federal Reserve's current stance on monetary policy and interest rate prospects. Any hints of tightening could prompt dollar strength.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

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Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 150.20 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to the 150.76 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 150.76, I plan to exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point pullback). A rebound can be expected within the scope of an upward correction. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 149.81 twice consecutively while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal to the upside. A rise to the opposite levels of 150.20 and 150.76 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below 149.81 (red line on the chart), which should trigger a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be the 149.33 level, where I will exit short positions and open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure may appear at any moment today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 150.20 twice consecutively while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would cap the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A drop to the opposite levels of 149.81 and 149.33 can be expected.

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Chart Guide:

  • Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
  • Thick green line – suggested Take Profit level or where profits can be manually locked in, as further upside above this level is unlikely
  • Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
  • Thick red line – suggested Take Profit level or where profits can be manually locked in, as further downside below this level is unlikely
  • MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it's crucial to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be extremely cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan—like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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