empty
25.02.2025 09:49 AM
Markets at a Crossroads: Key Factors to Watch (Possible Local Decline in Gold Prices and Rise in Crude Oil Prices)

After the markets reacted to the news of the U.S.-Russia negotiation process that was initiated following Donald Trump's call to Vladimir Putin, investors have shifted their focus back to the U.S. trade wars with several countries.

Initially, there was optimism regarding improved U.S.-Russia relations; however, the reality that Trump remains the key decision-maker proved less promising. On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar index (ICE) strengthened to 106.7, recovering from an 11-week low. This rebound followed Trump's announcement that tariffs on Canada and Mexico "will be imposed" after a one-month extension expires next week. Hopes that these two countries could negotiate a resolution with Trump's administration faded after his follow-up comments, prompting markets to adjust their expectations accordingly.

Market participants are now focusing on the upcoming PCE Price Index report and the second revised estimate of Q4 GDP, which could offer further clarity on the direction of monetary policy.

Last week, the U.S. Services PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.7 from 52.9, despite strong growth in the manufacturing sector. Additionally, consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan weakened notably due to concerns over persistent inflation, which could continue to rise given Trump's protectionist stance.

Against this backdrop, U.S. stock markets still lack a clear directional trend. The only assets showing a distinct movement have been the U.S. dollar on Forex and gold prices. The dollar declined due to uncertainty about future Federal Reserve policy, while gold prices surged as investors sought safe-haven assets. In response, SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed ETF, reported that its holdings increased to 904.38 tons on Friday—the highest level since August 2023.

What to Expect in the Markets Today?

I expect that both the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market will remain in a consolidation phase, moving within sideways ranges. The dollar may experience a temporary rebound on the ICE index, reaching 106.75, but this should not be seen as a trend reversal. This week's market focus will be on the PCE index report, which is a key factor in the Fed's interest rate decisions, as well as the second estimate of Q4 2024 GDP.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Forecast of the Day

GOLD

Gold prices remain near their historical high, but due to overbought conditions, a local decline to $2,903.00 is possible if the $2,932.70 level is breached.

CRUDE OIL (WTI)

The price of U.S. crude oil (WTI) remains in the $70.30–$73.50 range and may continue fluctuating within this range for some time. This is due to the current market balance between supply and demand. Given this equilibrium, a short-term upward move to the upper boundary of the range is likely.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Wall Street keeps White House in line

The market is showing heightened sensitivity to any good news, but its best days are behind it. The value of US equities as a percentage of the MSCI All Country

Marek Petkovich 11:42 2025-04-24 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen maintains a bullish tone despite certain headwinds and remains in focus as renewed global risk aversion fuels demand for safe-haven assets. Diminishing hopes for a swift resolution

Irina Yanina 11:35 2025-04-24 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is showing positive momentum as it attempts to hold above the $3300 level, indicating growing investor interest in this traditional safe-haven asset. The uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade relations—highlighted

Irina Yanina 11:33 2025-04-24 UTC+2

Trump Is Playing a Game Where Everyone Loses

According to a senior official at the European Central Bank, President Donald Trump has drawn the entire world into a game where everyone ends up losing — referring

Jakub Novak 11:21 2025-04-24 UTC+2

Trump Desperately Needs a Deal with China

The U.S. dollar surged sharply against most major currencies after President Donald Trump stated that he plans to be very "courteous" with China in any trade talks and that tariffs

Jakub Novak 11:16 2025-04-24 UTC+2

The Fed Needs More Time to Assess the Situation

While Donald Trump is attempting to reach an understanding with China, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler stated that the current tariff policy is likely to exert upward pressure on prices

Jakub Novak 10:05 2025-04-24 UTC+2

Powell Can Sleep Soundly

Markets responded with gains, and the US dollar strengthened against the euro and other risk assets after US President Donald Trump said he had no intention of firing Federal Reserve

Jakub Novak 09:59 2025-04-24 UTC+2

The Markets Have Likely Already Passed the Bottom of Their Decline (there is a chance of continued decline in EUR/USD and GBP/USD)

While markets remain focused on trade wars, particularly between the U.S. and China, incoming economic data indicate persistent structural problems in the advanced economies of Europe and the United States

Pati Gani 09:38 2025-04-24 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 24? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Thursday, but yesterday's developments showed that the market continues to ignore the majority of data releases. Only a handful of reports are lucky enough

Paolo Greco 06:05 2025-04-24 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – April 24: Didn't work out? So be it...

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair managed to avoid a substantial decline, although the day before, it seemed that a downtrend was finally beginning. However, the market quickly bounced back

Paolo Greco 03:16 2025-04-24 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.