empty
21.02.2025 10:21 AM
Markets. The First Results of Trump's Presidency. What's Next? (Potential USD/CAD Increase and EUR/USD Decline)

The initial impact of D. Trump's presidency on financial markets has been mixed. Let's examine the key takeaways.

Starting with stock markets, the U.S. stock market has remained close to its previously reached historical highs. The broad market index S&P 500, after a month of Trump's presidency (he officially took office on January 20), was trading near its local high of 6,127.50 points. Although the industrial DOW 30 did not reach its peak of 45,000.00 points, it closed not far from it, as did the high-tech NASDAQ 100.

This raises a question: Why is the U.S. stock market still near its all-time highs, especially when the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates further due to rising inflation?

Expectations of economic stimulus are likely driven by the protectionist policies of the new president, which promise significant opportunities for growth in domestic production and overall economic expansion.

What can we expect from the stock market?

At the very least, it is likely to consolidate at these historical levels for some time, and at most, it may continue to rise.

The cryptocurrency market has effectively stalled in its growth, a trend that has been evident across nearly all major crypto assets against the dollar in the lead-up to the U.S. presidential election results. This stagnation can be attributed to two main factors: first, there are increasing investment opportunities in the U.S. economy, particularly in stocks. Second, there is an expectation of a stronger dollar due to rising inflation and a lack of clear indicators regarding the widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies in the global economy. As a result, discussions on this topic remain largely speculative, which is limiting the demand for tokens.

What can we expect from the cryptocurrency market?

Until the situation becomes clearer, this segment of the global financial market is likely to move sideways.

Gold has been the biggest beneficiary of global geopolitical tensions, the temporary weakening of the U.S. dollar, and trade policy maneuvers under the Trump administration. Over the past four weeks, prices confidently surpassed the previous high of $2,790.10 per ounce, aiming for a new historical level of $3,000.00.

This level will likely be reached, fueled by the factors mentioned above. However, once the war in Europe ends, we should expect a deep correction in gold prices, as the worst of the geopolitical crisis will have passed. There is no doubt that this will eventually happen.

The U.S. dollar has been under pressure in the Forex market over the past four weeks despite a major supporting factor: the end of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, with the potential for rate hikes, if U.S. inflation remains above 3% and continues rising.

In my opinion, the decline of the dollar on the ICE index can be attributed to a decreased demand for the USD as a safe-haven currency, along with uncertainty surrounding the actual implementation of Trump's economic program. However, I believe the dollar has the potential for renewed growth. This is due to the contrasting rate-cutting cycles of several Western central banks compared to the Fed's position, which currently sees no need for further monetary easing. If the current economic trends in the U.S. continue, I expect the ICE index to reach 114.00 points by mid-year.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Daily Forecast:

USD/CAD

The pair is trading above the 1.4160 support level. There is a possibility that it will rise significantly next week, first reaching 1.4245, and then 1.4300.

EUR/USD

The pair is consolidating below 1.0520, around 1.0500. Its inability to break above 1.0520 could lead to a local reversal and a decline, first to 1.0390, and then to 1.0335 as early as next week.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Powell, Trump, and Everyone Else

What will change with the arrival of a new Federal Reserve Chair? This is a rather important question, and the answer to it may already have implications for the U.S

Chin Zhao 00:08 2025-06-27 UTC+2

AUD/USD. Resistance Level 0.6600 on the Horizon

The Australian dollar tested a significant resistance level at 0.6550 on Thursday, which corresponds to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the D1 timeframe. This

Irina Manzenko 00:08 2025-06-27 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis, Forecast, and Current Market Situation

Intraday demand for the Japanese yen remains steady, accompanied by broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, contributing to the decline in the USD/JPY pair. Rising expectations that the Bank of Japan

Irina Yanina 12:55 2025-06-26 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold prices are showing moderate gains for the second consecutive day, though they remain below the 3,350-dollar level. Intraday demand for the Japanese yen persists alongside broad U.S. dollar weakness

Irina Yanina 12:34 2025-06-26 UTC+2

USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CHF pair has remained under pressure for the fourth consecutive day, falling back to levels last seen in 2011. Bearish sentiment toward the U.S. dollar persists amid concerns over

Irina Yanina 12:04 2025-06-26 UTC+2

Trump Again Criticizes the Fed for Being Too Slow

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar sharply declined against major currencies after President Donald Trump stated that he has three or four candidates in mind to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome

Jakub Novak 10:59 2025-06-26 UTC+2

Investors Recall the Chronic Weakness of the Dollar (Further Decline in #USDX and USD/JPY Possible)

The markets continue to be dominated by the theme of Iran-Israel negotiations, previously initiated by the United States. Whether actual agreements are reached or not will have a noticeable impact

Pati Gani 09:19 2025-06-26 UTC+2

The Market Has Found a Cure for All Troubles

It seems that the heavens are aligned with Donald Trump's desires. The U.S. President's successes in the Middle East have led to a new perspective on the policies pursued

Marek Petkovich 09:04 2025-06-26 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 26? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday, and the market this week has shown a clear intention to continue the upward trend that has lasted for five months. Yesterday

Paolo Greco 07:16 2025-06-26 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 26: July 9 Is Approaching

The GBP/USD currency pair remained stagnant for most of Wednesday. Let's recall an old technical signal: if the price updates a significant extreme and immediately pulls back, there

Paolo Greco 03:39 2025-06-26 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.