empty
09.12.2024 01:19 PM
Forecast for GBP/USD on December 9, 2024

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday rose toward the resistance zone of 1.2788–1.2801, rebounded from it, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and returned to the support zone of 1.2709–1.2734. Consolidation below this zone could pave the way for a continuation of the decline toward the 1.2611–1.2620 zone and possibly signal the end of the bullish trend. A rebound from the 1.2709–1.2734 zone would maintain the bullish trend and allow for a return to the 1.2788–1.2801 level.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure raises no questions. A new upward wave broke the peak of the previous wave, while the last completed downward wave did not breach the prior low. This suggests the potential completion of the bearish trend and the start of a bullish one. However, I believe the bullish trend could remain weak. Last week, the bulls attacked confidently despite the mixed information background.

Friday brought plenty of news. The Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports provided no clear direction for the dollar. However, wage growth and consumer sentiment reports tilted the scales positively. Wages rose by 4% YoY, exceeding forecasts and posing a threat to further declines in the Consumer Price Index. This increases the likelihood of rising U.S. inflation for November and reduces the probability of the FOMC easing monetary policy in December—positive news for the dollar.

Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased from 71.8 to 74.0, surpassing trader expectations. As a result, the "supplementary" reports drew market attention to the positive aspects of the Nonfarm Payrolls data rather than the negative unemployment figures. Traders now await the upcoming inflation report, which could clarify expectations ahead of the Fed meeting. While the market still anticipates another rate cut, surprises could be in store.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has returned to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.2728 and consolidated above it. This opens the door for continued growth toward the next retracement level at 50.0%, or 1.2861. Conversely, a consolidation below 1.2728 could signal the resumption of the bearish trend clearly visible on the 4H chart.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

This image is no longer relevant

The sentiment among non-commercial traders has become less bullish over the past reporting week. Long positions decreased by 403 positions, while short positions increased by 1,905 positions. Although bulls still hold the advantage, it is diminishing noticeably in recent months. The gap between long and short positions now stands at just 19,000 positions (98,000 vs. 79,000).

Over the last three months, long positions have dropped from 160,000 to 98,000, while short positions have risen from 52,000 to 79,000. This suggests professional players may continue reducing their long positions or increasing shorts over time, as all possible bullish factors for the pound seem to have been priced in. Graphical analysis also supports a decline in the pound.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and UKMonday's economic calendar has no significant entries, meaning the informational background will have no influence on trader sentiment today.

Forecast and Trading Tips for GBP/USDSelling the pair was possible after a rebound from the 1.2788–1.2801 zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.2709–1.2734. This target was achieved on Friday. New sales are possible if the pair closes below 1.2709–1.2734, with a target of 1.2611–1.2620. At this time, I would avoid considering purchases, although there is no clear evidence yet of the current bullish trend ending.

Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.3000–1.3432 on the hourly chart and from 1.2299–1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Bitcoin: Dollar Strength Could Trigger a Downturn in the Crypto Market

Today, the market's main focus will be the release of the U.S. inflation report, which is expected to show not only a halt in the recent decline but the highest

Pati Gani 11:47 2025-06-11 UTC+2

EUR/USD. June 11th. The U.S. and China Agreed on Nothing

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to move sideways between the levels of 1.1380 and 1.1454. A new rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1380 enabled another rise

Samir Klishi 11:12 2025-06-11 UTC+2

GBP/USD. June 11th. UK Unemployment and US Inflation

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its decline on Tuesday, consolidated below the 161.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3520, and rebounded from it from below. Thus, the decline

Samir Klishi 10:56 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of AUD/JPY Cross Currency Pairs, Wednesday June 11, 2025.

From what is seen on the 4-hour chart, the AUD/JPY cross currency pair appears to have a Divergence between the AUD/JPY price movement and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator, so based

Arief Makmur 09:28 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Daily Price Movement of USD/IDR Exotic Currency Pairs, Wednesday June 11, 2025.

There are some interesting facts about USD/IDR at the moment, first the price movement of USD/IDR is moving below WMA (21), second the appearance of Bearish 123 pattern followed

Arief Makmur 09:28 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Trading Signals for BITCOIN (BTC/USD) for June 11-13: sell below $110,700 (21 SMA - 200 EMA)

Bitcoin is trading around 110,726, undergoing a technical correction after reaching 110,726, a level seen at the end of May. Bitcoin has formed a double top pattern, so we believe

Dimitrios Zappas 05:16 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for June 11-14: 2025 sell below $3,340 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)

Early in the European session, gold is trading around 3,334, showing exhaustion, as it bounced above 3,300 during yesterday's American session. This price level for gold

Dimitrios Zappas 05:09 2025-06-11 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for June 11, 2025

Yesterday, the US dollar attempted to push the euro below key technical support levels marked by the daily Balance and MACD indicator lines, but the euro withstood the pressure

Laurie Bailey 04:41 2025-06-11 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for June 11, 2025

Yesterday's employment data from the UK for May showed an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.5% to 4.6%, along with a rise in jobless claims by 33,100

Laurie Bailey 04:41 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Silver Forecast for June 11, 2025

Over the past seven sessions, silver has made a significant upward move, yet the growth potential remains far from exhausted. The target at 38.500 — the upper boundary

Laurie Bailey 04:41 2025-06-11 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.