empty
29.01.2024 03:35 PM
Bitcoin recovers above $42k: is the downward trend broken?

The past week marked a new phase of corrective movement for the main cryptocurrency and the entire market. Bitcoin, after plummeting to $42k, consolidated and resisted dropping below $40.5k, rarely testing this support zone. However, last week, the $42k level was breached, and subsequently, due to high selling volumes, the $40.5k level was also breached.

This image is no longer relevant

The cryptocurrency continued to fluctuate near $40.5k, but eventually, the key support level of $40.5k was also breached. Selling pressure increased, leading Bitcoin to retest the $39k level and briefly reaching $38.5k, where a local high was established. A subsequent local upward correction followed, which, by all metrics, appeared anomalous. However, the unlikely bullish BTC forecast was fulfilled, and the cryptocurrency confidently settled above $40k and later to $41k.

Is the downward trend over?

Recovery above $40k and the subsequent price increase to $42k marked the triumphant return of buyers to the market. This process coincided with the final exhaustion of sales volumes from the Grayscale fund, according to JPMorgan's data. If we follow the scenario that the decline in BTC/USD is solely due to Grayscale's massive sell-off, we should expect the value of BTC to recover to $45k and beyond in the new trading week.

This image is no longer relevant

However, from a technical standpoint, the situation looks more complex. If we conduct a Fibonacci retracement from the local peak at $48.9k to the current low at $38.5k, it turns out that the upward correction of BTC/USD at this stage has only reached the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which, in most cases, is not the final point. Typically, an asset's correction within an impulse wave concludes between the 0.500 and 0.618 levels. This suggests that Bitcoin has the potential to rise to $45k, and this price movement will be within the framework of a significant downward trend.

This image is no longer relevant

Considering this, purely from an analytical perspective, the correction of BTC/USD has likely ended since the structure of the local downward trend has been violated. However, from a broader perspective and in terms of technical analysis, Bitcoin needs to consolidate above $45k for a definitive break in bearish sentiment and a resumption of movement towards new highs.

Fundamental factors

On January 31, the long-awaited Federal Reserve meeting will take place, which will determine the future of financial markets in the coming weeks. This decision will be crucial for the crypto market, as it will finally clarify when the authority plans to initiate an interest rate easing policy. The latest inflation data, the stability of the U.S. economy, and a robust labor market add doubts to investors about whether the Federal Reserve will start lowering interest rates in the first half of 2024.

This image is no longer relevant

Analysts at Nomura believe that over the next 12 months of this year, the interest rate will be lowered by 1%, but when the process will begin is still unknown. Investors are eager to hear this information at the upcoming press conference of Jerome Powell, as the markets have no doubts that the interest rate will remain at current levels. The concern lies in the possibility of another rate hike to 5.75%, and it is this possibility that raises doubts among investors.

BTC/USD Analysis

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin market is experiencing a local calm after active weekends, and there are all reasons to believe that the current level of trading activity will continue until Wednesday. It is also quite likely that the asset will make a preemptive price move, trying to anticipate the actions of the Federal Reserve. As of January 29th, BTC/USD is trading at $42.1k, with daily trading volumes around $15 billion. Significant growth in the activity of unique addresses in the BTC network is also noted, which is a bullish signal.

This image is no longer relevant

However, as we have already noted, Bitcoin may continue to rise to $45k within the framework of the global downward trend. Considering this, it is worth highlighting a key level, in addition to $45k, which will serve as a magnet for the price in case of further price rallies. The nearest resistance level is located at $43.8k, at the 0.5 Fibonacci level. There is a possibility that the upward correction of the asset may end here, after which the next impulse to $37k will follow.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is at a crossroads, and the Federal Reserve meeting may provide answers to all the questions of interest to us. With a high probability, Jerome Powell's rhetoric will not be optimistic, and therefore, Bitcoin will likely continue to rise and reach the $43.8–$45k range, after which a new downward impulse will begin. However, one cannot exclude the activation of buyers and successful consolidation above this area, which will mark the beginning of an upward movement towards a new local high, possibly the last one before the halving.

Artem Petrenko,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

Solana 現貨 ETF 迫在眉睫

目前,Solana 正在吸引交易員的眼球。根據最新報告,美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 要求潛在的 Solana ETF 發行商在下週內提交修改後的 S-1 表格,這增加了此資產獲批現貨 ETF 的機會。

Jakub Novak 16:23 2025-06-11 UTC+2

加密貨幣寒冬正在成為過去式

比特幣顯示出強勁增長,距離創下歷史新高僅有一步之遙。然而,需理解的是,跨出這最後一步將相當具有挑戰性,並需要一個重大的催化劑。

Jakub Novak 10:18 2025-06-11 UTC+2

6月11日加密貨幣市場的交易建議

比特幣在昨日快速升至 $110,500 區域後正在進行修正,而以太坊依然保持活力——昨日上漲超過 6%,目前交易價格為 $2,785。 在如此強勁的市場反彈情況下,長期持有者繼續累積BTC也不足為奇。

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:01 2025-06-11 UTC+2

比特幣恢復增長——背後有其原因

比特幣已經恢復上升趨勢,並帶動其他加密貨幣資產一起上漲。今天在亞洲交易時段的上升顯示出多個主要技術阻力位的突破,這引發了一波清算以及加密貨幣市場的強勁反彈。

Jakub Novak 10:12 2025-06-10 UTC+2

6月10日加密貨幣市場交易建議

比特幣終於突破107,000美元水平,並且在今天的亞洲交易時段迅速上漲至約110,000美元,距離創下歷史新高僅一步之遙。然而,是否能夠邁出這一步以及挑戰難度如何,仍有待觀察。

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:30 2025-06-10 UTC+2

6月9日加密貨幣市場交易建議

比特幣再度達到其近期偏好的106,500美元水平,儘管週五的美國勞動市場數據並不支持這一上升。以太坊在週末也有所增強,但今日的亞洲交易時段帶來了許多驚喜。

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:21 2025-06-09 UTC+2

萊特幣加密貨幣 2025 年 6 月 5 日星期四日內價格波動的技術分析。

在萊特幣加密貨幣的4小時圖上,出現了一個擴展下降楔形形態,這表明在不久的將來將會有增強的趨勢。儘管目前萊特幣有向下修正至85.33的潛力,但只要此下行修正沒有跌破並收在83.65以下,萊特幣依然有潛力再次上升至92.69的水平,如果增強的波動性和動能支援,下一個目標將瞄準於95.17。

Arief Makmur 09:53 2025-06-05 UTC+2

6月5日加密貨幣市場交易建議

比特幣正面臨著頻繁達不到 106,000 美元的困境,並且更多時候會回落至 104,000 美元,這對短期而言是一個相當令人擔憂的信號。這種模式遲早可能會導致 BTC 的更大回調,甚至可能引發強烈的拋售。

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:20 2025-06-05 UTC+2

6月4日加密貨幣市場交易建議

比特幣和以太坊持續嘗試突破關鍵阻力位,但一直面臨相同的障礙。 一方面,這表明主要市場玩家採取謹慎的態度,並持觀望立場。

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:19 2025-06-04 UTC+2

BTC與全球M2流動性之間的相關性仍然很高

比特幣仍然無法穩固地保持在 $106,000 以上的水平,這引起了一定的擔憂。儘管在最近的幾天內,其他山寨幣和代幣的表現要好得多,但比特幣屢次在 $106,000 價位遇到阻力的事實值得注意。

Jakub Novak 09:17 2025-06-04 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.