Forex Analysis & Reviews: 28.04.2023 - Bitcoin ends trading week...

28.04.2023 10:30 AM

Bitcoin ends trading week near $30k: what to expect for the weekend?

The ending week has been extremely volatile for Bitcoin due to a series of important events. In total, over 80,000 traders' positions were liquidated during the week, amounting to more than $400 million. Despite the excessive price movement variability, the asset managed to maintain its bullish structure.

The local corrective movement of BTC ended near the $27k level. It is quite likely that the correction would have continued, but another bankruptcy of an American bank triggered a sharp surge of interest in the cryptocurrency.

Fundamental background

Financial markets and the global economy continue to be plagued by doubts about the solvency of investments in stocks, as well as the likelihood of an impending recession. The Philadelphia Fed published a business activity index, which fell to a level that previously preceded a recession.

It also became known that after raising the U.S. national debt limit by $1.5 trillion, the number of applications for 1-year insurance against U.S. default broke a record. Investors are beginning to hedge risks en masse, and the publication of labor market and GDP growth reports will only intensify these sentiments.

The U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023 was only 1.1%, with a forecast of 2%. The previous figure was 2.6%, indicating a significant acceleration in the slowdown in the U.S. economy. At the same time, the labor market continues to show resilience: with a forecast of 248,000 unemployment claims, the reality stopped at 230,000.

Thanks to the early stage of the bull market, Bitcoin is becoming an increasingly attractive asset for investors. The two-year high correlation with gold is direct evidence of BTC's new role. It is quite likely that as the situation in the global economy worsens, cryptocurrency will become more and more in demand.

However, it cannot be said that the latest macroeconomic data will prompt investors to buy BTC more actively. The economic slowdown plays into Bitcoin's hands, but the resilience of the labor market gives the Fed time to continue raising rates.

BTC/USD Analysis

Bitcoin has shown a high level of resilience and aggressive buying of support zones below the $28k level. This indicates strong bullish positions and suggests that BTC will likely succeed in consolidating above $30k. At the same time, investors failed to collect liquidity below the $27k level.

The situation with FRC bank triggered an impulsive bullish reaction, which allowed BTC to consolidate above $28k. However, there is a gradual decrease in bullish volumes as the price moves upward, raising questions about the trend's sustainability without a drop below $27k.

Technically, the BTC/USD continues its upward movement, and as of April 27, the price tested the $30k level. However, there was a decrease in trading volumes, which signals a weakening of the bullish impulse.

Technical metrics on the daily timeframe show the preservation of the bullish trend. The Stochastic Oscillator continues to execute a bullish crossover, and the RSI has taken on a flat direction. Meanwhile, the MACD is a step away from forming a bullish crossover, indicating the formation of a medium-term upward trend.

Conclusions

Bitcoin needs to stay above $29k by the end of today's trading session to strengthen its positions and continue moving towards $30k. However, trading activity will decrease over the weekend, making consolidation above $30k unlikely. The main task for BTC this week—to maintain the structure of the bullish trend—has been accomplished.

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