Forex Analysis & Reviews: 19.04.2023 - Oil market may face weak...

19.04.2023 12:31 PM

Oil market may face weak demand

Early on Wednesday, oil prices were falling amid expectations of a slump in demand. Thus, at the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI oil futures for June delivery were trading at $80.51 per barrel, down 0.48% from the closing value of the previous trading day. Brent crude futures for June delivery fell by 0.47% to $84.37 per barrel.

Due to existing market concerns about demand, oil prices continue to trade within a certain range. Doubts about demand have arisen following yesterday's publication of China's GDP data for the first three months of this year. On a yearly basis, the economic growth totaled 4.5%. It is positive news, as the data exceeded analysts' forecasts of a 4% rise. That is, China's economy grew faster than expected, and the recovery is mostly on track after most quarantine restrictions were lifted earlier this year.

Nevertheless, the country's economic recovery remains significantly uneven. Although demand in the services sector and infrastructure spending recovered after the pandemic, weak inflation and a drop in imports indicate that demand remains weak.

Moreover, data on industrial production growth was also disappointing as it did not meet expectations for the second month in a row. According to the latest data, industrial growth in China totaled just 3.9%, whereas everyone had expected a final figure of at least 4%.

Chinese production, which is almost the main driver of the country's economy, is recovering with difficulty. This could be partially explained by sluggish foreign demand for Chinese goods.

China's economic recovery is one of the main factors driving the growth in oil demand this year. That is why any economic report from this country is closely monitored by investors. As for Russian exports, last week the indicator returned to average levels after falling at the end of March. Oil shipments from Russian ports now amount to 3.4 million barrels per day, about 3.1 million of which goes to India and China. As we can see, the export of Russian crude remains stable, and Russian production has not been reduced yet.

Another important factor for the oil market is the situation in the financial market. Upcoming meetings of the world's central banks will shed light on the prospects for the largest economies, as it will become clear to what extent interest rates will be raised. In addition to the global recession expectations, monetary policy tightening also reduces the inflow of cheap money into commodity markets.

According to CME FedWatch Tool data, the probability of a rate hike at the meeting on May 3 is already 89%. Notably, a week ago, it was only 40%. In June, however, there is a 70% chance that the interest rate will not be raised. In September, a decrease is expected. However, this will become possible if inflation starts to slow down sharply between April and June or if the banking sector in the world's largest economy is again on the brink of collapse.

According to the latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), commercial crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 2.7 million barrels last week. However, official statistics have not yet been published. The Department of Energy will release it this evening. Analysts suppose that oil inventories decreased by only 1.1 million barrels.

你今天已经点赞上这篇文章了

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

If you have any content questions, please contact editorial-board@instaforex.com

News

Andreeva Natalya,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025

该作者的更多文章

EURUSD

Euro vs US Dollar

选择时间框架

分钟

小时

天

周

开始交易

通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。

下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。

推荐文章

4月9日美國市場新聞摘要

多米諾效應：美國關稅衝擊市場，投資者拋售美元與債券

「黃金」預測：黃金價格將達到 $3,500，$3,700——越來越高？

市場如同坐過山車：道瓊指數暴跌，黃金上漲，特朗普使投資者緊張不安

4月8日美國市場新聞摘要

市場動盪：道瓊大跌、黃金飆升、特朗普增添緊張

貿易戰：S&P 500 暴跌 3%，日經指數暴跌 6%，投資者面對最壞情況做好準備

美國市場新聞摘要 - 4月7日

美國對決全世界：川普關稅引發市場從華爾街到歐洲崩跌

4月4日美國市場新聞摘要

Top analytics