Forex Analysis & Reviews: 17.01.2023 - Oil joins the favorites

Live Chat

This section features the most important information about trading with InstaForex. We provide both analysis from leading experts for experienced traders and articles on trading conditions for beginners. Our services will help increase your profit potential.

Become Trader

开户

另见

交易条件

外汇分析

图表

This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.

Start as Beginner

如何开始交易

有用信息

Training and recordings

InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.

Become Investor

PAMM 系统

外汇跟单系统

被动投资

OYS 帐户

Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.

Become Partner

主页

合作伙伴区域

同盟的优势

This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.

All Promo Campaigns

Bonuses

比赛

事件

Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.

Full details

论坛

我们在社交网络

外汇幽默

外汇门户

InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.

Learn More

History

为什么选择我们

InstaSport

法规

公司新闻

奖项

InstaForex 明星

InstaForex 线下

Headquarters

关键文件

的社会责任

InstaForex洛普莱斯队 - 达喀尔拉力赛的正式参与者

17.01.2023 12:03 PM

Oil joins the favorites

If the first week of January upset oil fans, the second, on the contrary, pleased them. Brent jumped 10% on expectations that the rapid recovery of China's economy after the lifting of COVID-19-related restrictions will strengthen global demand for oil and contribute to the recovery of prices. ING believes that thanks to China, the average cost of the North Sea variety in 2023 will be $100 per barrel, and Goldman Sachs expects a rally in futures quotes to $120. However, not everyone agrees with them.

In fact, the roller coaster ride in oil at the start of the year shows how divided the market is. Pessimists believe that economic growth outside of China leaves much to be desired and still count on a global recession. Wall Street Journal experts estimate a 61% chance of a downturn in the U.S. economy over the next 12 months. This is slightly lower than in the fall forecasts, but both are close to record high levels, except for real recessions.

Dynamics of the likelihood of a recession in the United States

Bears on Brent nod to Russia's rise in offshore oil supplies to 3.8 million bpd in the week to January 13, the highest since April. If Moscow has adapted so quickly to Western sanctions, can we talk about the lack of supply cited by Goldman Sachs?

The American investment bank notes that all investors are currently fixated on a global recession that will not actually happen. The Chinese economy will accelerate from 3% to 5.5% in 2023, the eurozone will avoid an energy crisis, and the U.S. will have a soft landing thanks to strong household balance sheets and a robust labor market. As a result, demand for oil will exceed forecasts, which, coupled with problems with supply, will allow Brent to rise to $120 per barrel.

Dynamics of Russia's offshore oil supply

Goldman Sachs compares the current time period with 2007–2008, when the Fed took its foot off the brake, China hit the gas all the way, and Europe began to rise rapidly. Then oil prices skyrocketed. Why don't they do it now, when the situation is very similar?

In the short term, the updated forecasts of OPEC and the IEA can provide support to the bulls for Brent. There has been a lot of pessimism in them lately, but the opening of China can add positivity.

In my opinion, the North Sea variety will grow. Markets are tired of Fear and ready for Greed to arrive. However, due to the Lunar New Year and some weakening of the U.S. economy, the oil rally will not be strong in the near future. At least for now. Nevertheless, it makes sense to use the pullbacks for buying.

Technically, due to the implementation of the 1-2-3 pattern, risks of a serious correction that can turn into a break in the long-term downward trend increase. Emphasis should be placed on the formation of long positions in the direction of $91.75 and $97.25 per barrel. We prefer holding and periodically increasing longs opened from the $83.4 level.

你今天已经点赞上这篇文章了

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。