empty
05.12.2022 11:44 PM
Surprise. The dollar may eventually fall

This image is no longer relevant

The prospect of less aggressive tightening and reports of a sudden relaxation of coronavirus-containment measures from China have scared investors away from the dollar. The US currency remains weak, nevertheless it is too early to say that it is about to enter a bearish trend. The optimism in the markets, sown last Wednesday by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, has not taken hold. The labor market data was better than forecast, which confused investors.

It looks like the uncertainty will last until the Fed meeting on December 14. Money markets estimate an 80% chance that the central bank will raise rates by 50 bps at the upcoming meeting after four consecutive 75 bps rate hikes. Still, investors see a greater likelihood that the peak for Fed funds will be higher than expected.

The dollar index settled below 105.00 on Monday, hitting its lowest level since late June and wiping out more than half of this year's gains. The big question now is whether the dollar bears can survive this week's U.S. economic data.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its Non Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - also known as the Services Business Activity Index.

Any form of disappointment in the markets regarding the ISM service sector PMI would reinforce expectations for less aggressive monetary policy tightening in the US and put more pressure on the dollar.

The markets seemed surprised. The Services Business Activity Index unexpectedly rose to 56.5% in November from October's 54.4%. Analysts had expected the index to decline to 53.3%.

The services employment index rose to 51.5% in November from 49.1% a month earlier.

The dollar rose as a form of short-term reaction to the data, but so far bulls have no good reason for a serious and long-term uptrend.

Bearish pressure could prompt the dollar to accelerate losses. In that case, the bears would send the index to a weekly low of 103.67 and below (103.40).

As long as the U.S. currency index trades beyond the 105.59 level, the outlook for the dollar would remain negative.

This image is no longer relevant

The pound/dollar exchange rate was able to reach the midpoint in the ongoing reversal of the 2-year downtrend.

"GBP/USD could test its 6-month high this week if the USD continues to decline as we expect," analysts said.

"I did not think we would make it this far in this pair and 1.2320 is a bit of resistance in terms of levels above but who knows what is going to stop this pair in the very short term," says Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies.

Settling above 1.2300 will strengthen the bullish scenario and make us wait until it climbs to 1.2460. Take note that the pair should remain stable above 1.2130 in order for GBP to rise further. The expected trading range in the short term is between 1.2260 support and 1.2440 resistance.

Support is located at 1.2175, 1.2070, 1.2010. Resistance is at 1.2340, 1.2400, 1.2505.

This image is no longer relevant

The pound owes its impressive recovery mainly to the dollar. Domestic problems in the UK will not disappear so quickly, which means the pound will still feel the pressure if it is not supported by a weakening dollar.

"Indeed, we think that the fiscal austerity measures recently announced by the UK government would exacerbate the ongoing UK recession. The latter could compromise the ability of the BoE to deliver on the still quite hawkish market expectations," says Valentin Marinov, head of FX strategy at Credit Agricole CIB.

"We further doubt that FX investors will unwind their GBP shorts in full given that the fundamental case for further gains has become rather tenuous amid the ongoing recession and the recent fiscal austerity measures in the UK. We recommend selling GBP/USD," Marinov adds.

Natalya Andreeva,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

市場對美聯儲不採取行動表示歡迎:納斯達克100指數創下所有時期高峰

週二,受以色列和伊朗之間脆弱的停火以及美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾在國會山莊對立法者的謹慎發言的提振,美國股市大漲超過1%。 美國三大股指都收盤大幅上升,這是連續第二個交易日的增長。

Thomas Frank 15:16 2025-06-25 UTC+2

6月25日美國市場新聞摘要

儘管地緣政治風險和貿易緊張局勢持續存在,美國股市仍然穩步攀升。 在科技股需求旺盛的情況下,尤其是人工智慧領域,納斯達克100指數創下新高紀錄。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:38 2025-06-25 UTC+2

伊朗與以色列和平暗示震動市場:對石油、黃金和貨幣的影響

全球股市週一收於高點,擺脫了對中東緊張局勢升溫的擔憂。投資者似乎不受伊朗對美國在卡塔爾軍事設施的報復性襲擊影響,而是專注於更廣泛的市場動能。

Thomas Frank 14:00 2025-06-24 UTC+2

6月24日美國市場新聞摘要

S&P 500和其他主要基準在新交易週開始時表現出正面的動能,技術指標提供支持。此次上漲是受到Marlin振盪器的強勢信號推動,進一步加強了指數達到6,343-6,400區間目標的預期。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:59 2025-06-24 UTC+2

伊朗攻擊加劇了石油危機:S&P 500在關鍵美國數據公布前停滯

由於投資者預期在周末美國對伊朗的軍事打擊後會出現一個急劇的下滑,所以這周一金融市場處於警戒狀態。對報復和油價上漲的可能性對全球情緒造成了相當大的壓力。

Thomas Frank 12:44 2025-06-23 UTC+2

6月23日美國市場新聞摘要

在中東緊張局勢升溫的情況下,投資者仍保持謹慎,等待伊朗可能的報復行動。 儘管市場反應至今相對平靜,但衝突的進一步升級可能會引發油價飆升,並增加股市波動性。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:31 2025-06-23 UTC+2

6月17日美國市場新聞摘要

隨著以色列和伊朗之間的衝突加劇,美國股市的緊張局勢正在上升。分析師警告說,潛在的全面戰爭可能導致標普500指數下跌20%。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 13:25 2025-06-17 UTC+2

比特幣多頭與空頭展開拔河。BTC對美國通脹反應不大

目前,這個旗艦加密貨幣正力求創下新高,但在此過程中仍然面臨一些障礙。最新的挑戰來自持續不斷的多空鬥爭,雙方都在爭奪掌控比特幣走勢的主導地位。

Larisa Kolesnikova 16:51 2025-06-16 UTC+2

6月16日美國市場新聞摘要

由於以色列和伊朗之間的緊張局勢升級推高了油價,加劇了市場的不確定性,美國股市指數在週五的交易中收低。標準普爾500指數下跌1.13%,納斯達克100指數下跌1.30%,道瓊斯指數下跌1.79%。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 13:50 2025-06-16 UTC+2

6月13日美國市場新聞摘要

儘管S&P 500指數持續穩步上升,投資者仍然保持對股票的熱衷,無視日益增加的風險和全球經濟的不穩定性。這種樂觀態度建立在對持續增長的預期之上,然而它也引發了一些擔憂。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:29 2025-06-13 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.