empty
25.03.2025 07:04 PM
EUR/USD. March 25th. A Dull Week Ahead

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 200.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0857, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and declined toward the support zone of 1.0781–1.0797. A rebound from this zone today would favor the euro and trigger a new upward move toward the 1.0857 level. A firm consolidation below this zone will increase the likelihood of a continued decline toward the next Fibonacci level of 161.8% at 1.0734.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave situation on the hourly chart has changed. The last completed upward wave only slightly surpassed the previous peak, while the most recent downward wave barely broke the previous low. As a result, the current wave pattern still points to a bullish trend, but it may begin to reverse soon as the bulls appear to have run out of momentum. For several weeks, Donald Trump's tariffs have put strong pressure on the dollar, but this won't last forever.

On Monday, the news background was of interest to traders, but most of the reports failed to answer the key question: what to do with the euro and the dollar? PMI data can often hint at future economic trends, but yesterday wasn't one of those days. Manufacturing PMIs in Germany and the Eurozone improved, but the Services PMIs declined. Overall, it's hard to say whether the European economy is recovering or slowing down. In my view, it's doing neither — it's stagnating.

There will be few important events this week, so traders may shift their focus to next week when the news background becomes more significant. In early April, we'll find out which tariffs Donald Trump plans to impose on trade partners around the world, which could have a highly negative impact on bearish positions. Historically, markets have reacted very negatively to the introduction of tariffs. For now, the dollar is enjoying a brief reprieve.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar following another "bearish" divergence and closed below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0818. Therefore, a further decline toward the next retracement level of 50.0% at 1.0696 can be expected. The euro has room to fall, as the price is still above the ascending trend channel. No new divergences are currently forming on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 305 new long positions and closed 46,030 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group has turned bullish again — thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 189,000, while short positions have decreased to 129,000.

For 20 consecutive weeks, large traders had been selling off the euro, but they've now been cutting short positions and increasing longs for six weeks in a row. The divergence in monetary policy approaches between the ECB and the Fed still favors the U.S. dollar due to the interest rate differential. However, Donald Trump's policy is now a stronger factor for traders, as it may push the Fed toward a more dovish stance and potentially trigger a recession in the U.S. economy.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

Eurozone – Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany (09:00 UTC) U.S. – New Home Sales (14:00 UTC)

The economic calendar for March 25 includes two secondary-tier releases. The news background is expected to have a very weak influence on market sentiment on Tuesday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:

Selling the pair was possible after a rebound from 1.0944 and 1.0857 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.0857 and 1.0797 — all of which were achieved. New short positions will be possible upon a confirmed break below the 1.0781–1.0797 zone, with targets at 1.0734 and 1.0622. Buying can be considered after a rebound from the 1.0781–1.0797 zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.0857.

Fibonacci grids are plotted from 1.0529–1.0213 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Grigory Sokolov
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Forex forecast 14/08/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, Ethereum and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 09:07 2025-08-15 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for August 15, 2025

Yesterday's U.S. producer inflation data for July showed a sharp jump: 0.9% for the month and 3.3% y/y versus 2.4% y/y the previous month. The probability of a September Federal

Laurie Bailey 05:01 2025-08-15 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for August 15, 2025

The euro has now reached Fibonacci time line No. 8 — and it has arrived with a pessimistic mood. Yesterday, the support level at 1.1632 was tested, and the Marlin

Laurie Bailey 05:01 2025-08-15 UTC+2

AUD/USD Forecast for August 15, 2025

After yesterday's sharp drop of more than 50 pips, it has become clear that the breakout and consolidation above the balance line (blue rectangle) was false, which now shifts

Laurie Bailey 04:53 2025-08-15 UTC+2

EUR/USD – August 14th. Friday will be decisive

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement and consolidated above the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1695. This suggests that the euro may continue rising today toward the next

Samir Klishi 11:57 2025-08-14 UTC+2

GBP/USD – August 14th. The UK economy delivers positive news

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward move on Wednesday and reached the 100.0% retracement level at 1.3586, which borders the resistance area of 1.3611–1.3620. A rebound

Samir Klishi 11:15 2025-08-14 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Indicator Analysis on August 14, 2025

On Wednesday, the pair, moving upward, tested the 85.4% retracement level at 1.1731 (yellow dashed line) and then declined, closing the daily candle at 1.1704. Today, the price may begin

Stefan Doll 11:00 2025-08-14 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Indicator Analysis on August 14, 2025

On Wednesday, the pair, moving upward, tested the upper fractal at 1.3587 (red dashed line) and then retreated slightly, closing the daily candle at 1.3571. Today, the price may begin

Stefan Doll 10:48 2025-08-14 UTC+2

EUR/USD. The Pair May Correct Downward Amid Trump's Speech

Today, U.S. President D. Trump is scheduled to speak. Investors, already aware that he might throw in something unexpected, are reducing part of their long positions in the pair just

Pati Gani 10:03 2025-08-14 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The breakout above the $3358 level, where the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart is located, against the backdrop of the earlier confirmed hold above the 200-period

Irina Yanina 08:38 2025-08-14 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.