empty
10.03.2025 12:51 PM
BTC/USD Analysis – March 10th

This image is no longer relevant

The 4-hour wave structure for BTC/USD is quite clear. After the completion of a five-wave bullish trend, the market has transitioned into a bearish corrective phase. Given this, I do not expect Bitcoin to rise above $110,000–$115,000 in the coming months.

The news cycle has fueled Bitcoin's growth in recent months, with continuous reports of institutional investments, government adoption, and pension fund allocations into the crypto market. However, Trump's policies have driven investors away, and no trend can remain bullish indefinitely.

The wave that began on January 20 does not resemble an impulsive wave. Instead, we are dealing with a complex corrective structure, which could last for months. The internal wave structure of this first corrective phase is highly complex and ambiguous. As a rule, wave structures should be as simple and clear as possible for effective trading.

Over the past few days, BTC/USD has dropped by $10,000. Even Trump's speech, which focused entirely on cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin reserves in the U.S., and the future of the crypto industry, failed to provide support.

Since Trump officially took office, the U.S. stock market, Bitcoin, and the U.S. dollar have all been falling. Typically, a decline in the dollar should lead to an increase in the value of dollar-denominated assets, including Bitcoin. However, Trump has achieved something unusual: both the dollar and Bitcoin are falling simultaneously, along with U.S. stock indices.

At this point, market participants are avoiding risk assets, as the future remains highly uncertain. While uncertainty is always present in financial markets, there are varying degrees of it. Trump is reshaping global policies, and no one knows the long-term consequences for the U.S. itself. Given this backdrop, investors are likely seeking safe-haven assets to navigate these volatile conditions.

This image is no longer relevant

Key Takeaways

Based on my BTC/USD analysis, I conclude that Bitcoin's uptrend is over for now. Everything currently points toward a complex, multi-month correction. I have previously advised against buying Bitcoin, and this recommendation remains unchanged.

A break below wave 4's low would confirm the transition into a downtrend, most likely of a corrective nature. For now, I see the best opportunities on the short side by analyzing lower timeframes. Bitcoin could fall to $76,000 (161.8% Fibonacci extension) and $68,000 (200.0% Fibonacci extension) in the coming weeks. Before expecting a new uptrend, I would like to see at least three clear and well-defined bearish waves.

On higher timeframes, a five-wave bullish structure is evident. At present, the market is forming either a corrective pullback or an extended bearish wave cycle.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often change unpredictably.
  2. If there is uncertainty about market direction, it is better to stay out.
  3. There is never 100% certainty in price movement. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of technical analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Pressure Returns to Bitcoin and Ethereum

Following Trump's speech at the crypto summit yesterday, pressure on Bitcoin and Ethereum has returned. Another factor contributing to this was a renewed sell-off in risk assets on the U.S

Jakub Novak 10:22 2025-03-21 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on March 21

Bitcoin and Ethereum once again struggled to overcome key resistance levels, preventing a short-term upward trend in these assets. Their inability to even hold near weekly highs also points

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:16 2025-03-21 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Bitcoin Cryptocurrency, Friday March 21, 2025.

With the appearance of Divergence between Bitcoin price movements with the Stochastic Oscillator indicator and the Bullish 123 pattern followed by the Bullish Ross Hook (RH)), in the near future

Arief Makmur 06:18 2025-03-21 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Ripple Cryptocurrency, Friday March 21, 2025.

If we look at the 4-hour chart of the Ripple cryptocurrency, there appears to be a Divergence between the Ripple price movement and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator and the appearance

Arief Makmur 06:18 2025-03-21 UTC+2

Bitcoin aims to hit $90,000

Following yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting, where the central bank ran out of strong arguments to keep interest rates high, Bitcoin and Ethereum have resumed their bullish movement. Despite the Fed's

Jakub Novak 09:32 2025-03-20 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on March 20

Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced a rebound following yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting, which indicated that interest rates may need to be lowered. Regardless of how long the Fed intends

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:22 2025-03-20 UTC+2

Bitcoin Targets $85,000

Interest in Bitcoin remains strong, as any normal downward movement is quickly bought up by large players. The fact that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have resumed recording net inflows also

Jakub Novak 10:49 2025-03-19 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on March 19

Bitcoin and Ethereum faced challenges again after a recent sell-off on the U.S. stock market, but buyers and major players once again showed their strength, purchasing all downward movements

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:01 2025-03-19 UTC+2

BTC/USD Analysis – March 18th: Bitcoin Prepares for Growth, but the Risk of Collapse Remains

The 4-hour wave structure for BTC/USD appears clear and well-defined. After completing a five-wave bullish trend, a bearish phase began, which currently resembles a corrective pattern. Based on this

Chin Zhao 09:47 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on March 18

Bitcoin and Ethereum buyers attempted to achieve more significant growth, and for a moment, the bullish market might gain hope for a return. However, they could not hold the achieved

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:00 2025-03-18 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.