empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
21.02.2025 10:52 AM
Wave analysis of BTC/USD on February 21. Bitcoin unwilling to click into gear
Open trading account Open demo account

This image is no longer relevant

Wave analysis suggests limited upside potential

The 4-hour wave structure for BTC/USD appears clear and well-defined. Following a lengthy and complex a-b-c-d-e corrective structure that formed between March 14 and August 5, a new impulsive wave began to take shape, developing into a five-wave pattern. Judging by the size of the first wave, the fifth wave appears to be cropped. Based on this, I do not expect Bitcoin to rise above $110,000–$115,000 in the coming months.

Additionally, wave 4 consists of three elements, confirming the validity of the current wave count. The news cycle has supported Bitcoin's growth, fueled by ongoing institutional investments from hedge funds, governments, and pension funds. However, Trump's policies could prompt investors to exit the market, and trends cannot always be bullish. The wave that started on January 20 does not resemble an initial impulse wave, suggesting we are dealing with a complex corrective structure that could take months to develop in full.

Bitcoin remains trapped in a narrow range

The BTC/USD price has remained nearly stagnant throughout the week. While minor fluctuations are occurring, this is far from the market activity most traders had hoped for. Bitcoin continues its slow decline toward the wave 4 low.

For the past two weeks, BTC has traded within $93,600–$98,600, corresponding to 23.6% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels from wave 4. Since December 17, Bitcoin has been ranging between $91,400 and $108,300, forming two overlapping sideways channels—further emphasizing the need for a pause in Bitcoin trading.

A breakout from the smaller range could trigger a move toward the peak of the presumed Wave 5, but Bitcoin must first escape this horizontal corridor.

Lack of market drivers keeps BTC in consolidation

Currently, the information environment is weak—not only in the forex market but also in crypto. Bitcoin's major movement occurred in the second half of last year, when the Federal Reserve began aggressively easing monetary policy. Now, the market has already priced in that factor, while Donald Trump's foreign policy seems to have little impact on BTC's price.

Although Trump has announced pro-crypto measures, history suggests that their implementation could take a long time—if they materialize at all. The US President continues to make contradictory statements, and the market is wary of taking his words at face value.

As a result, traders are ignoring Trump's promises regarding crypto industry development and the potential creation of a national Bitcoin reserve. Instead, the Republican leader appears more focused on his own cryptocurrency, TRUMP, than on BTC, reserves, or regulations.

This image is no longer relevant

Conclusion. Is Bitcoin's growth cycle coming to an end?

Based on my wave analysis of Bitcoin, I conclude that its bullish trend is nearing its end—or has already ended. This may not be a popular opinion, but the fifth wave appears shorter than usual. If this assumption holds, Bitcoin is heading for either a sharp drop or a prolonged correction—with the latter being the more likely scenario.

For this reason, I do not recommend buying Bitcoin at this time. If BTC falls below the wave 4 low, it would confirm the transition into a new downward trend phase.

On a higher time frame, we can observe a completed five-wave bullish structure. This suggests that a corrective downward structure or a new bearish trend may soon begin to take shape.

Key principles of my analysis:

  • Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often change.
  • If you are uncertain about the market trend, it's better to stay out.
  • There is no 100% certainty in price direction. Always use Stop Loss orders to protect your positions.
  • Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies for a more comprehensive approach.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Wave analysis
EUR/USD Analysis on June 23, 2025 The wave pattern of the 4-hour EUR/USD chart continues to indicate the development of an upward trend segment. This transformation occurred exclusively due to the new U.S. trade policy. Until
Chin Zhao
19:08 2025-06-23 +02:00
1135
Forecast
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders for June 23rd (U.S. Session) Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen The test of the 147.48 level occurred when the MACD indicator was in the overbought zone, which prevented scenario #1
Jakub Novak
18:18 2025-06-23 +02:00
1180
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 23

Bitcoin and Ethereum plummeted following speculation that Iran might block the Strait of Hormuz and begin bombing U.S. oil tankers in retaliation for American strikes. This triggered a massive sell-off
Miroslaw Bawulski 09:07 2025-06-23 UTC+2

Trading tips for crypto market on May 20 (North American session)

Bitcoin and Ether performed well today in terms of buying following a pause in yesterday's bear market. Demand has returned to the cryptocurrency market, especially after geopolitical tensions eased somewhat
Miroslaw Bawulski 16:20 2025-06-20 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 20

Bitcoin continued trading within a sideways channel, dropping to the $104,000 area yesterday before recovering to a more acceptable level of $104,500. Ethereum also showed no clear directional movement. Despite
Miroslaw Bawulski 09:24 2025-06-20 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Ripple Cryptocurrency, Friday June 20, 2025.

The Ripple cryptocurrency on its 4-hour chart appears to be moving in a ranging - sideways condition where it is currently stuck at the Support Bullish Rejection Block area level
Arief Makmur 07:45 2025-06-20 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Doge Cryptocurrency, Friday June 20, 2025.

From what is seen on the 4-hour chart, the Doge cryptocurrency appears to be moving under a Bearish bias, where this can be seen from its price movement which
Arief Makmur 07:45 2025-06-20 UTC+2

BTC/USD Analysis on June 19, 2025

The wave pattern on the 4-hour BTC/USD chart has become more complex in recent months. A corrective downward structure formed and completed near the $75,000 level. After that, a fairly
Chin Zhao 11:07 2025-06-19 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 19

Yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum remained under pressure, failing to receive support from major players despite attempts to break through key resistance levels. After dipping to around $130,400, Bitcoin is currently
Miroslaw Bawulski 08:36 2025-06-19 UTC+2

Wave analysis of BTC/USD on June 18. Bitcoin to clear up its overall impulse

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart of BTC/USD has become more complicated in recent months. We observed a corrective downward structure that completed near the $75,000 mark. After that
Chin Zhao 15:34 2025-06-18 UTC+2

Middle East Tensions and U.S. Involvement Trigger Crypto Market Sell-Off

Bitcoin came under significant pressure yesterday following the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The likelihood of U.S. involvement in a military conflict has increased significantly, which puts pressure
Jakub Novak 11:41 2025-06-18 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 18

Bitcoin and Ethereum plunged following the latest escalation in the Middle East and the increasing likelihood that the United States will be drawn into the conflict. Bitcoin dropped from $107,600
Miroslaw Bawulski 09:46 2025-06-18 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 02:00 2025-06-24 UTC--5
Forecast for EUR/USD on June 23, 2025
11:24 2025-06-23
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 01:00 2025-06-24 UTC--5
EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 23. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades
08:41 2025-06-23
Forecast
Relevance up to 21:00 2025-06-23 UTC--5
GBP/USD Forecast for June 23, 2025
04:56 2025-06-23
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 21:00 2025-06-23 UTC--5
EUR/USD Forecast for June 23, 2025
05:00 2025-06-23
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 19:00 2025-06-23 UTC--5
EUR/USD Overview – June 23: The U.S. Has Officially Entered the War Against Iran
03:50 2025-06-23
Fundamental analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.