Forex Analysis & Reviews: 11.03.2021

11.03.2021 12:17 PM

EURUSD under pressure

According to Biden's plan, the funding will go in several directions: 400 billion in direct payments, 350 billion to government agencies and municipalities, an increase in subsidies for vaccination, and additional tax benefits for families with children. At the same time, the increase in the minimum wage to $ 15 / hour failed. Unemployment benefits have also been reduced by $ 100 at once.

This is a traditionally democratic package. Unlike the Republicans, the House of Representatives expects to stimulate production through consumer demand.

The downside of this decision is the expected high inflation. Of course, the withdrawal of excess cash may stabilize the dollar, however, the volume of bond purchases will decrease.

There is another side to the question: rising prices will spur the purchase of the dollar, so in the near future we should expect its growth.

But the long-term perspective is questionable. Already, analysts predict the subsidence of part of the financing in the pockets of technology companies through microloans. Also, the withdrawal of cash may not go according to plan if the population begins to make its reserves.

Therefore, the plan did not receive a single vote from Republicans, who traditionally push the interests of big business. Among the Democrats, Jared Golden, a representative from the conservative state of Maine, voted against, saying that the high cost of foreign borrowing calls into question the further recovery of the economy.

At the same time, a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll from March 8 and 9 showed that 70% of Americans are happy with government support.

Morgan Stanley gave a forecast for production growth for 2021 at 8.1%, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development improved the forecast to 6%.

After the end of the COVID-19 program, a new round of programs from Democrats is expected, including immigration, infrastructure, and climate change.

Against the background of this event, analysts from Frankfurt predict that the European Central Bank will also turn on the machine after the United States and increase its injections into the economy. The reason is the ECB's concern about the growth of interest rates on government bonds.

The ECB is limited in its options, as it cannot raise accusations of protecting the government from market fluctuations.

Germany, whose profitability is an indicator for the rest of the bloc, is going through hard times due to the bankruptcy of Greensill, which may leave German cities and counties without finances. So far, its yield for the week has increased by only 30 points. But this growth does not signal well-being, but only reflects the events in the Federal Reserve treasury bond market. The volume of purchases for the last two weeks on state loans decreased.

Disagreements in the German parliament also play into the hands of the euro. The Conservative Party prefers to do nothing, despite the obvious threat to the currency.

Europe also lags behind even Britain in vaccination rates. The recent increase in taxes also does not help to reduce inflation. The overall forecast for inflation is expected to be 1.4%, which is in line with the previously published one.

Marco Valli, an economist at UniCredit, says the ECB is teetering between accusations of tight regulatory policies and a lack of positive developments.

We will soon learn about the ECB's immediate plans. So far, the EURUSD pair is growing thanks to investors' hope for the future activity of the Central Bank.