Forex Analysis & Reviews: 12.09.2019 - Different scenarios for...

12.09.2019 03:26 PM

Different scenarios for EUR/USD pair following an important ECB meeting

The EUR/USD will not budge ahead of the ECB meeting. Markets expect a 10 bp cut in rates and restarting the quantitative easing program. The pair is trading in a tapering triangle, or wedge. Technical analysis suggests that high volatility will replace a narrow trading range when the pair determines its direction. Where will she go? Most indicators indicate a decline. Support is expected at 1.0985, followed by 1.0960 and then 1.0926. If we talk about growth, then the resistance is expected at 1.1055, then 1.1090 and 1.1115. On the whole, there is tension in the market, everyone is waiting for the speech of the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, who will introduce new measures to combat the slowdown in economic growth and inflation.

According to one version, the ECB intends to reduce interest rates by at least 10 bp, and, most likely, this will confirm obligations to maintain low-interest rates. In this case, EUR/USD may jump. The ECB hawks speak in favor of this scenario, and if they win, then the EUR/USD bulls will also win. On the other hand, the Board of Governors may reduce rates by 20 bp, as well as resume the bond purchase program with a budget of 30-50 billion euros. This will cause the pair to fall. The ECB must act in response to worsening economic conditions. Inflation remains low, with the underlying CPI dropping below 1%. Germany's economy contracted in the second quarter, and third quarter indicators point to another recession, which is a clear recession. Eurozone suffers due to weak demand from China and trade wars. Nevertheless, the most recent events have been positive. The US President Donald Trump postponed the introduction of new tariffs and China allowed companies to buy American agricultural products. These goodwill gestures precede high-level negotiations and help ease market tensions.

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*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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